Oil Wars

Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study 

- Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year

- Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown. 

The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (44) a barrel. 

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"The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil it needs as demand is rising while supply is falling. This is a huge problem for the world economy," said Hans-Josef Fell, EWG's founder and the German MP behind the country's successful support system for renewable energy. 

The report's author, Joerg Schindler, said its most alarming finding was the steep decline in oil production after its peak, which he says is now behind us. 

The results are in contrast to projections from the International Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment. 

However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground. The group says official industry estimates put global reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels - equivalent to 42 years' supply at current consumption rates. But it thinks the figure is only about two thirds of that. 

Global oil production is currently about 81m barrels a day - EWG expects that to fall to 39m by 2030. It also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium production as those energy sources are used up. 

Britain's oil production peaked in 1999 and has already dropped by half to about 1.6 million barrels a day. 

The report presents a bleak view of the future unless a radically different approach is adopted. It quotes the British energy economist David Fleming as saying: "Anticipated supply shortages could lead easily to disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month. For government, industry and the wider public, just muddling through is not an option any more as this situation could spin out of control and turn into a complete meltdown of society." 

Mr Schindler comes to a similar conclusion. "The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life." 

Jeremy Leggett, one of Britain's leading environmentalists and the author of Half Gone, a book about "peak oil" - defined as the moment when maximum production is reached, said that both the UK government and the energy industry were in "institutionalised denial" and that action should have been taken sooner. 

"When I was an adviser to government, I proposed that we set up a taskforce to look at how fast the UK could mobilise alternative energy technologies in extremis, come the peak," he said. "Other industry advisers supported that. But the government prefers to sleep on without even doing a contingency study. For those of us who know that premature peak oil is a clear and present danger, it is impossible to understand such complacency." 

Mr Fell said that the world had to move quickly towards the massive deployment of renewable energy and to a dramatic increase in energy efficiency, both as a way to combat climate change and to ensure that the lights stayed on. "If we did all this we may not have an energy crisis." 

He accused the British government of hypocrisy. "Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have talked a lot about climate change but have not brought in proper policies to drive up the use of renewables," he said. "This is why they are left talking about nuclear and carbon capture and storage. "

Yesterday, a spokesman for the Department of Business and Enterprise said: "Over the next few years global oil production and refining capacity is expected to increase faster than demand. The world's oil resources are sufficient to sustain economic growth for the foreseeable future. The challenge will be to bring these resources to market in a way that ensures sustainable, timely, reliable and affordable supplies of energy." 

The German policy, which guarantees above-market payments to producers of renewable power, is being adopted in many countries - but not Britain, where renewables generate about 4% of the country's electricity and 2% of its overall energy needs.

Energy Watch Group

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Older Comments:

A barrel of oil still a barrel yesterday, today and tomorrow only thing change is Death of the Dollar, like or not when we just print 100 $ piece of paper that worth 4.4 cents only. Tell me now who the fool. The one that sale or the one that buy.

I feel pity for OPEC and other oil producing country, they can only sell oil in US dollars: (((( Oil at USD$95.00 still less then 4.4 cents the cost of printing a USD$100.00 bill. Until we bring back gold stranded to our dollar, we are just robbing other of their wealth with them knowing it.

Good luck!! It is not unexpected how little the mainstream, corporate press has covered the ongoing collapse of the USA fiat dollar


"Inna lmubadireena kanoo ikhwaana shayateen" meaning those who waste planet earth's natural resources are the brothers and sisters of Satans.
To Imran, why did the pharaoh of Egypt believe prophet Joseph explanation of his bad dream? It's simple it's because it's a scientific explanation...it makes sense!!! Please read the Quran with an open mind !!!

Peace to all,


Salaamu alaikum to all,
Romesh , some of what you said is true but you need to remember that your people in India along with the people of Australia "have lots of camels" too not just us Arabs that you seem to hate for some odd reason??? Also you said that "the PetroSheiks love wars..." How can you say that when you see that they are not joining the war against Iraq... ? You can't prove it!!!...You need to talk with evidence not on the basis of emotions & bias like some of us in this planet do. We should all know that these political leaders are nothing but puppets of the US, Israel, GBR, multinational corporations, lobby groups, the IMF, the World bank & the G8 countries behind the scene elites & super powerful families. Of course all govs try to maximise their gains in peace & war... We also need to know that oil prices are controlled by the USA; OPEC "controls" the output only. Very good point Lars Brovajck we shall all moan & mourn America's dying spirit. It's very sad & worrisome that the world has never had a role model nation state. It seems to me that history is bound to keep repeating itself over & over again. And yes, this situation does benefit certain groups, multinationals & governments out there including those doom & gloom Christian freaks in the US (no offence is meant to peaceful Christians) that keep voting for Bush for the simple reason that their leaders have successfully convinced them that: If Armageddon is unavoidable why worry about oil depletion, pollution, climate change & world War III. To them the rupture is inevitable & by believing in the ideology of the likes of (pseudo-religious leaders) such as Jerry Farwell & Pat Robertson they think they are saved. To them, these men have already booked for them their tickets to heaven anyways.
Zainon, yes Allah is the provider but that does mean we shall keep destroying planet earth & not worry about His punishment.. Have you read this verse from the Quran yet:

Atleast people are realising/learning that these western powers are after OIL / GAS / WEALTH in the MID-EAST(Diamonds and Gold in Africa).


And I supppose you, Romesh, know as a matter of fact that "Iraq war will be the last oil war by the major powers."

Insha'Allah. The Almighty has the final say.

Romesh, open up your eyes and start thinking. Famines are caused, with motives, by man. And while you're at it, think about the effects of global agriculture of bio-engineered and genetically modified crops, and trees let's not forget the fake trees, forced upon us by the US after World War II.

FYI: Since we are not into materialism, Biblical Christianity and Biblical Christians need one drop of arab/muslim oil.

World running out of oil!! Now what are we going to do with US Interstate highway system? No oil, no cars, no traffice. May be we will convert them into "Silk Roads". Just imagine, millions of camels and donkeyes in long caravans, say from San Francisco to New York or from Miami to Boston. Anybody who wants to make lots of money should start breeding camels and donkeyes. And Arabs are very familiar with camel and donkey breeding. They can make lot of money by selling camels and donkeys to US. And moreover, they will act as consultants to americans for feeding, cleaning, and taking care of those animals; americans don't know anything about these kinds of animals.

Why must an Islamic Website parrot the findings of a special interest group and "play" the fear card.

In reality you don't know what the morrow will bring.

Pharoah was shamed into being asked to make the sun rise from the west. And he was made to look foolish indeed.

Why should we follow false pharoahs of doom?

So when you tell me something will happen by 2030 why should I believe you?


Oil wars. Yes, those PetroSheikhs love them. They are making tons of extra money which is even scaring US banks and vital institutions. At the start of the Iraq war oil price was about $40; now it is $80. Funny, not only rich countries are forced to pay it, but so are the poor and the poorest ones -- they have to pay $80 too. Moreover, none of the boys from PetroSheikhdoms are dying in the war -- it is the Iraqis and americans who are dying in this stupid (and unnecessary) war. Does anybody know, how much money are Kuwaiti contractors making in this war? Tons of it.

Yes, Iraq War is a good racket; and PetroSheikhs love this racket.

After the Iraq war, there will be no oil wars where major powers like US are involved; If US cannot win this war, how can anybody else win any oil war. So, Iraq war will be the last oil war by the major powers. From now on, oil wars will be local (and probably civil wars). One needs lot of oil to wage wars and manufacture ammuniton; major powers will have no control on foreign oil anymore and hence will not be able to wage wars far off. Oh, yes, they will wage wars, but in their own neighbourhoods (e.g., various european countries fighting among each other using horses and donkeys).

Note to Zainon:

You wrote "It's amazing how some people say as a matter of fact that the world will not be able to produce all the oil (or water or grains) it needs... Providence is for Allah, not us, to measure.".

Well, so far nobody has been able to prevent famines in the history of the world. May be "GOD" wanted famines to happen?

Well oil war or gas war, one thing is now indisputable. The Bush/Cheney/Rice cabal was the dream team that Al-Quieda could only wish for in their wildest dream. In 8 years this team of loonies have wrought such destruction on the US on all fronts that Al-Quieda could not possibly achieve in 800 years. The economy in taters. The treasury looted. Thousands of soldiers dead. Unemployment sky high. Housing market dumped. US dollar worthless. Education the bottoms. US industry choking. Living conditions worst in 60 years...and yet the grand ape continues to bleed the country dry...yet more money for more wars...but then what are the Americans fighting and dieing for/ Surely its not 9-11 Saddam did not do it and neither did the countless Afghan and Iraqi women and children Americans have slaughtered..so what for? Oil and Israel. I wonder if Israel's streets are paved with gold and jewels that its worth dieing for or is it that Israel has American leadership and its economy in a chokehold and Americans are being choked to death by Israel. Whatever the reason looks like the current Americans don't have an ounce of the blue blood in their veins from their forefathers or else they would have risen up, revolted and thrown out the lunatics from office just like their forefathers threw out the British. But that is only in the movies. The old honourable American character and American heroism is dead and buried. My condolonces to America.

It's amazing how some people say as a matter of fact that the world will not be able to produce all the oil (or water or grains) it needs. Just like the astronomers who say a new moon can't be sighted on such and such a date. Just like the doctors who tell a patient he or she has only a certain number of months to live. Providence is for Allah, not us, to measure.