Carry on up the Nile Leader Saturday September 10, 2005 http://www.guardian.co.uk/ - The Guardian
No one in the Middle East need hold their breath in anticipation of the final outcome of this week's Egyptian presidential election. Partial results reported by the (tightly controlled) official media yesterday suggested President Hosni Mubarak has taken some 80% of the vote, easily seeing off all nine of his rivals. Not bad for a man of 77 seeking a fifth term 24 years since he came to power. Still, the reported turnout of just 30% suggests widespread apathy - even though this was the first time other candidates had ever been allowed to stand.
Mr Mubarak's slick campaign kept the former air force pilot in soft-focus, avuncular mode, sipping tea while chatting to peasants on the banks of the Nile. But this could not hide flaws including vastly unequal resources and campaigning time as well as intimidation and ballot-stuffing. Foreign monitors were rejected as an affront to Egyptian sovereignty.
Yet this was a landmark election not because it offered genuine choice now but because, by replacing the system of a referendum for one candidate, it showed in a partial, caricatured way what a real multiparty contest could be like, raising expectations for the future. Ayman Nour, courageous leader of the Al-Ghad (Tomorrow) party, was able to voice criticism of unemployment, corruption, emergency laws, human rights abuses and a notoriously unresponsive bureaucracy. It has to be said that this would not have happened without US pressure on its closest Arab ally (and recipient of $1.8bn in annual aid) to flesh out George Bush's vision of a wave of democratic reform rippling out from post-Ba'athist Baghdad. It was also easier than trying to demonstrate progress in Saudi Arabia.
In the short term, the election will make little difference. It failed to even address two big questions. The first is that of the succession to Mr Mubarak, who in dynastic style that the ancient pharaohs would have recognised, has been grooming his son Gamal to take over from him. The other is what role there will be for Islamist parties. The Muslim Brotherhood, the country's largest and oldest opposition movement, remains banned and unable to participate in legal politics. Until it can, true multi-party democracy will not exist. The thing to watch is whether the Mubarak regime will seek to muzzle now emboldened opposition parties or whether they will be able freely to contest parliamentary elections in November. If they are then the Arab world's most populous country may yet see real change. America, Britain and Europe, have every interest in ensuring it does.
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