Syria, Egypt Reveal Erdogan's 'Hidden Agenda'


The eruption of the Syrian conflict early in 2011 heralded the demise of Turkey's officially pronounced strategy of "Zero Problems with Neighbors," but more importantly, it revealed a "hidden agenda" in Turkish foreign policy under the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

What Sreeram Chaulia, the Dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs in India's Sonipat, described as a "creeping hidden agenda" (http://rt.com on Sept. 15, 2013) is covered up ideologically as "Islamist."

But in a more in-depth insight it is unfolding as neo-Ottomanism that is pragmatically using "Islamization," both of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's legacy internally and Turkey's foreign policy regionally, as a tool to revive the Ottoman Empire that once was.

Invoking his country's former imperial grandeur, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davotoglu had written: "As in the sixteenth century ... we will once again make the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Middle East, together with Turkey, the center of world politics in the future. That is the goal of Turkish foreign policy and we will achieve it." (Emphasis added)

Quoted by Hillel Fradkin and Lewis Libby, writing in last March/April edition of www.worldaffairsjournal.org, the goal of Erdogan's AKP ruling party for 2023, as proclaimed by its recent Fourth General Congress, is: "A great nation, a great power." Erdogan urged the youth of Turkey to look not only to 2023, but to 2071 as well when Turkey "will reach the level of our Ottoman and Seljuk ancestors by the year 2071" as he said in December last year.

"2071 will mark one thousand years since the Battle of Manzikert,"" when the Seljuk Turks defeated the Byzantine Empire and heralded the advent of the Ottoman one, according to Fradkin and Libby.

Some six months ago, Davotoglu felt so confident and optimistic to assess that "it was now finally possible to revise the order imposed" by the British - French Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916 to divide the Arab legacy of the Ottoman Empire between them.

Davotoglu knows very well that Pan-Arabs have been ever since struggling unsuccessfully so far to unite as a nation and discard the legacy of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, but not to recur to the Ottoman status quo ante, but he knows as well that Islamist political movements like the Muslim Brotherhood International (MBI) and the Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami (Islamic Party of Liberation) were originally founded in Egypt and Palestine respectively in response to the collapse of the Ottoman Islamic caliphate.

However, Erdogan's Islamist credentials cannot be excluded as simply a sham; his background, his practices in office since 2002 as well as his regional policies since the eruption of the Syrian conflict less than three years ago all reveal that he does believe in his version of Islam per se as the right tool to pursue his Ottoman not so-"hidden agenda."

Erdogan obviously is seeking to recruit Muslims as merely "soldiers" who will fight not for Islam per se, but for his neo-Ottomanism ambitions. Early enough in December 1997, he was given a 10-month prison sentence for voicing a poem that read: "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers;" the poem was considered a violation of Kemalism by the secular judiciary.

Deceiving 'Window of Opportunity'

However, Erdogan's Machiavellianism finds no contradiction between his Islamist outreach and his promotion of the "Turkish model," which sells what is termed as the "moderate" Sunni Islam within the context of Ataturk's secular and liberal state as both an alternative to the conservative tribal-religious states in the Arabian Peninsula and to the sectarian rival of the conservative Shiite theocracy in Iran.

He perceived in the latest US withdrawal of focus from the Middle East towards the Pacific Ocean a resulting regional power vacuum providing him with an historic window of opportunity to fill the perceived vacuum.

"Weakening of Europe and the US' waning influence in the Middle East" were seen by the leadership of Erdogan's ruling party "as a new chance to establish Turkey as an influential player in the region," Gnter Seufert wrote in the German Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) on last October 14.

The US and Israel, in earnest to recruit Turkey against Iran, nurtured Erdogan's illusion of regional leadership. He deluded himself with the unrealistic belief that Turkey could stand up to and sidestep the rising stars of the emerging Russian international polar, the emerging Iranian regional polar and the traditional regional players of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, let alone Iraq and Syria should they survive their current internal strife.

For sure, his allies in the Muslim Brotherhood International (MBI) and his thinly veiled Machiavellian logistical support of al-Qaeda - linked terrorist organizations are not and will not be a counter balance.

He first focused his Arab outreach on promoting the "Turkish model," especially during the early months of the so-called "Arab Spring," as the example he hoped will be followed by the revolting masses, which would have positioned him in the place of the regional mentor and leader.

But while the eruption of the Syrian conflict compelled him to reveal his Islamist "hidden agenda" and his alliance with the MBI, the removal of MBI last July from power in Egypt with all its geopolitical weight, supported by the other regional Arab heavy weight of Saudi Arabia, took him off guard and dispelled his ambitions for regional leadership, but more importantly revealed more his neo-Ottoman "hidden agenda" and pushed him to drop all the secular and liberal pretensions of his "Turkish model" rhetoric.

'Arab Idol' No More

Erdogan and his foreign policy engineer Davotoglu tried as well to exploit the Arab and Muslim adoption of the Palestine Question as the central item on their foreign policy agendas.

Since Erdogan's encounter with the Israeli President Shimon Peres at the Economic Summit in Davos in January 2009, the Israeli attack on the Turkish humanitarian aid boat to Gaza, Mavi Marmara, the next year and Turkey's courting of the Islamic Resistance Movement "Hamas," the de facto rulers of the Israeli besieged Palestinian Gaza Strip, at the same time Gaza was targeted by the Israeli Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009 then targeted again in the Israeli Operation Pillar of Defense in 2012, Turkey's premier became the Arab idol who was invited to attend Arab Leage summit and ministerial meetings.

However, in interviews with ResearchTurkey, CNN Turk and other media outlets, Abdullatif Sener, a founder of Erdogan's AKP party who served as deputy prime minister and minister of finance in successive AKP governments for about seven years before he broke out with Erdogan in 2008, highlighted Erdogan's Machiavellianism and questioned the sincerity and credibility of his Islamic, Palestinian and Arab public posturing.

"Erdogan acts without considering religion even at some basic issues but he hands down sharp religious messages ... I consider the AK Party not as an Islamic party but as a party which collect votes by using Islamic discourses," Sener said, adding that, "the role in Middle East was assigned to him" and "the strongest logistic support" to Islamists who have "been carrying out terrorist activities" in Syria "is provided by Turkey" of Erdogan.

In an interview with CNN Turk, Sener dropped a bombshell when he pointed out that the AKP's spat with Israel was "controlled." During the diplomatic boycott of Israel many tenders were granted to Israeli companies and Turkey has agreed to grant partner status to Israel in NATO: "If the concern of the AKP is to confront Israel then why do they serve to the benefit of Israel?" In another interview he said that the NATO radar systems installed in Malatya are there to protect Israel against Iran.

Sener argued that the biggest winner of the collapse of the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad would be Israel because it will weaken Lebanon's Hizbullah and Iran, yet Erdogan's Turkey is the most ardent supporter of a regime change in Syria, he said.

Erdogan's Syrian policy was the death knell to his strategy of "Zero Problems with Neighbors;" the bloody terrorist swamp of the Syrian conflict has drowned it in its quicksand.

Liz Sly's story in the Washington Post on this November 17 highlighted how his Syrian policies "have gone awry" and counterproductive by "putting al-Qaeda on NATO's (Turkish) borders for the first time."

With his MBI alliance, he alienated Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in addition to the other Arab heavy weights of Syria, Iraq and Algeria and was left with "zero friends" in the region.

According to Gnter Seufert, Turkey's overall foreign policy, not only with regards to Syria, "has hit the brick wall" because the leadership of Erdogan's ruling party "has viewed global political shifts through an ideologically (i.e. Islamist) tinted lens."

Backpedaling too late

Now it seems Erdogan's "Turkey is already carefully backpedaling" on its foreign policy," said Seufert. It "wants to reconnect" with Iran and "Washington's request to end support for radical groups in Syria did not fall on deaf Turkish ears."

"Reconnecting" with Iran and its Iraqi ruling sectarian brethren will alienate further the Saudis who could not tolerate similar reconnection by their historical and strategic US ally and who were already furious over Erdogan's alliance with the Qatari financed and US sponsored Muslim Brotherhood and did not hesitate to publicly risk a rift with their US ally over the removal of the MBI from power in Egypt five months ago.

Within this context came Davotoglu's recent visit to Baghdad, which "highlighted the need for great cooperation between Turkey and Iraq against the Sunni-Shiite conflict," according to www.turkishweekly.net on this November 13. Moreover, he "personally" wanted "to spend the month of Muharram every year in (the Iraqi Shiite holy places of) Karbala and Najaf with our (Shiite) brothers there."

Within the same "backpedaling" context came Erdogan's playing the host last week to the president of the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government, Massoud Barzani, not in Ankara, but in Diyarbakir, which Turkish Kurds cherish as their capital in the same way Iraqi Kurds cherish Kirkuk.

However, on the same day of Barzani's visit Erdogan ruled out the possibility of granting Turkish Kurds their universal right of self-determination when he announced "Islamic brotherhood" as the solution for the Kurdish ethnic conflict in Turkey, while his deputy, Bulent Arinc, announced that "a general amnesty" for Kurdish detainees "is not on today's agenda." Three days earlier, on this November 15, Turkish President Abdullah Gul said, "Turkey cannot permit (the) fait accompli" of declaring a Kurdish provisional self-rule along its southern borders in Syria which his prime minister's counterproductive policies created together with an al-Qaeda-dominated northeastern strip of Syrian land.

Erdogan's neo-Ottomanism charged by his Islamist sectarian ideology as a tool has backfired to alienate both Sunni and Shiite regional environment, the Syrian, Iraqi, Egyptian, Emirati, Saudi and Lebanese Arabs, Kurds, Armenians, Israelis and Iranians as well as Turkish and regional liberals and secularists. His foreign policy is in shambles with a heavy economic price as shown by the recent 13.2% devaluation of the Turkish lira against the US dollar.

"Backpedaling" might be too late to get Erdogan and his party through the upcoming local elections next March and the presidential elections which will follow in August next year.

*****

Nicola Nasser is a veteran Arab journalist based in Birzeit, West Bank of the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories. nassernicolaymail.com


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  8 Comments   Comment

  1. Ghazenfer Mohiuddin from Canada

    The article is a zionist propoganda against Turkey and Islam.It is very strange that iviews is promoting such ideas. It is a new lawrence of arabia ploy to divide the turks and the arabs

  2. Sab from US

    As an American of Albanian decent. I see the Neo-Ottomanization the Turks are trying to do. Brainwashing my people into thinking they are peace loving people with economic strength. Albanians were the longest Europeans under Turkish rule. 500 years. In 500 years they created nothing but misery, torture, they didn't allow us the use of our language officially, stole our kids to become soldiers to fight their dirty wars, did not create one university or college or school. If they did what the Arabs did in Spain I would have welcomed them once again. They always sided with the Greeks and Serbs against Albanians and had half a million deported to Turkey in the 1950s and hundreds of thousands more in Greece. Yes the population exchange in Greece they were Albanians NOT Turks. But they only do what they do in Kurdistan keeping people poor, underdeveloped, undereducated and outlawing the use of their language. The sick man of Europe has once again come home to roost. I side with my Kurdish brothers and sisters. I have more in common with them than I do with Turkish ambitions that offer nothing but a devalued economy and ruthless rule. They even put the star in moon in every mosque when infact it is a symbol of their flag not of Islam. Free Kurdistan!

  3. Jawed Iqbal from Texas

    Only an indian or jewish zionist can have a problem with Erdogan's vision and call it a "hidden agenda". What right do western imperialists exactly have to prevent Turkey - or any Muslim country for that matter - from achieving a dominant role in their geo-region.

    Gone are the days when only Europe and America had duopoly over dictating world affairs. The Muslim world is rising up thanks to leaders like Erdogan and Morsi (who the western powers had removed via a coup through their minions in the egyptian military).

    The West needs to backoff, and stop flaming regional wars (Syria, Yemen), otherwise, the world is headed towards global war.

  4. Babandi A. Gumel from U.K

    Masha Allah Tayyip Erdogan is one of the best liberal Islamic democrat if I may use that term.The way Masha Allah he presented Islam he is really like the representative of our Deen who has taken the middle course, he is neither an extremist nor one who is ignorant retrogressive therefore taking the middle course as directed by our Creator and therefore proving that he wishes best for the Ummah. May Allah make our leaders be like this man Erdogan whom we all admire for his sincerity and steadfastness and presenting Islam in a nice manner easy for every one for every one to see both the leaders and the general Ummah. As it is said in Hadith Ad-Deen is nasihah (sincerity and goodwill).They asked to whom,the Prophet answered to Allah His Book,His Prophet and the leaders of the Muslims and the general Muslims. So Erdogan is an example and embodiment and typical follower of this Hadith part of the Ummatan Wasata that took the middle course which we are expected to follow. So once more Jazakallah Brother Erdogan for your truthfulness, steadfastness and sincerity and above all presenting his Nasihah to Turkish an indirect presentation to the Ummah.

  5. Malick from United States

    This article does confirm my long standing suspicions towards

    Erdogan. It was nothing concrete however, any student of history

    recognizes the signs in the times, the seasons and the leaders, and

    it was always obvious to me that Erdogan was not to be trusted.

    Though he places himself as the rescuer of Islam and as an opponent

    of the abuses of the West and of Israel, it just never rung true,

    and many events that took place in Turkey proper, including the

    recent manifestations and his response to them, shows him to be no

    more than another Arab leader, an autocrat veiled in the cloak of

    democracy or Islam. Had Turkey not have a well established

    democratic system that limits political "derapages", I can guarantee

    you that by now he would done what the Generals did in Egypt,

    urgently consolidate power for the "benefit" of the whole.

  6. shaque from usa

    The article is balantat attempt to present Western View of democratic

    Islam. Turkey's stand on Syria, Egypt and internal politics is

    consistent and it is unlike Western Ideaology which has treated

    military regimes of Egypt and Syria differently depending upon who is

    friendly with West's toxic ideaology. What is aims of Western

    ideaology. It is same as Roman who were ruling resources rich mddle

    east. After years of struggle jews worshippers of cow has joined hands

    to dominate Islam. However through Turkey and Iran Islam will emerge

    victorious.

  7. khan from US

    Israel has a Plan of Greater Israel

    Britain had almost all world

    US is to take the whole world,

  8. Reef from United Kingdom

    A bit naive of the author to expect a leader in his prime with a rich

    imperial history behind him not to claim his seat as a regional power.

    Who would not? There is nothing hidden about it. I feel proud to see

    the first lady of a muslim country meeting world leaders wearing her

    hijab. He might have miscalculated some the political game in the M.E.

    but still good luck to him.