THE SECRET: Oil Crunch is Coming

Category: Americas, World Affairs Topics: Economy, Free Market Views: 13020
13020

WHATEVER THE TWISTS AND TURNS in global politics, whatever the ebb of imperial power and the flow of national pride, one trend in the decades following World War II progressed in a straight and rapidly ascending line -- the consumption of oil.  If it can be said, in the abstract, that the sun energized the planet, it was oil that now powered its human population, both in its familiar forms as fuel and in the proliferation of new petrochemical products.  Oil emerged triumphant, the undisputed King, a monarch garbed in a dazzling array of plastics.  He was generous to his loyal subjects, sharing his wealth to, and even beyond, the point of waste.  His reign was a time of confidence, of growth, of expansion, of astonishing economic performance.  His largesse transformed his kingdom, ushering in a new drive-in civilization.  It was the Age of Hydrocarbon Man.
-- Daniel Yergin, 1992. [1]

What if tomorrow Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat met with representatives from each of the 19 Muslim petroleum-exporting countries and proposed an entirely new organization called the "Alliance of Muslim Petroleum Exporting Nations" -- "AMPEC" for short?
-- Richard Duncan, 1997 letter to President Clinton. [2]

The genius of our so-called democracy lies in its stability and predictability.  James Madison (1751-1836) is known as "the father of the U.S. Constitution". [3]  Madison's primary political concern centered on the maintenance of social stability by the political and social control of competing factions; control by government itself was a secondary consideration.  With those objectives in mind, the framers crafted an elaborate political system:

Where "first object of government" (highest priority) was "the faculties" of acquiring property. [4]

Where the struggle of classes and passions (e.g., religious conflict) was replaced with the struggle of interests in the economic sphere.

Where the political system was extremely resistant to change.

Where political power was reserved for a white male minority while projecting the illusion of self-government to the majority.  Madison scholar Richard K. Matthews explains:

"By consciously denying virtually all but a handful of citizens any role in a governmental structure that, by design, was to be run by an elite of superior ability (who nonetheless would have to check and balance each other), Madison left [economic struggle] as the prime avenue for humanity to search for meaning." [5]

Nowadays, the terms "democracy" and "market economy" are often used interchangeably.  Political decisions in a market economy are stunningly simple: one dollar, one vote.  In short, the market economy serves as a stealth political system to foster rational thought, universal values based on calculation, and world peace based on self-interest.  The market economy succeeds because it satisfies our hunter/gatherer genetic drives for dominance, sex, food, and material possessions.

One hundred years ago, fundamentally defective economic theories led to two world wars with millions killed.  Today, the same defective economic theories are taught to students all over the world and are leading to a new generation of world wars with billions killed.

America will soon lose the stability the framers worked so hard to create because it is becoming wholly dependent upon inherently unstable (authoritarian) oil-producing Muslim nations like Indonesia.  It happened twenty-five years ago when OPEC quadrupled world oil prices and plunged America into "stagflation".  Fortunately, the non-OPEC producers still had a HUGE unexploited oil cushion to fall back on and simply pumped central bankers out of their economic crisis.

But that was 1973 and this is 1999 -- twenty-five years later the oil cushion is gone.  Muslim nations will soon control virtually all of the world's oil exports.  Since neither capital nor labor can create energy, the next round of energy-shortage-induced stagflation will leave central bankers helpless and they will seek military solutions to their economic problems.

It's the best-kept secret in Washington, Whitehall, Brussels, and Jerusalem, but it's just a matter of time until word hits the street...

ENERGY SOURCES

Energy and Resource Quality Hall, Cleveland, and Kaufmann, 1992

By definition, energy "sources" must produce more energy than they consume, otherwise they are called "sinks". [6]

The market economy burns energy to make money -- there is no substitute for energy.  Although the economy treats energy just like any other resource, it's not like any other resource.  Available energy is the precondition for all resources -- including energy resources.

The key to understanding energy issues is to look at the "energy price" of energy.  Energy "sources" that consume more energy than they produce are called "sinks" and are worthless as sources of energy.  This thermodynamic law applies no matter how high the "money price" of energy goes.

The market economy receives almost 80 percent of its energy subsidies from nonrenewable fossil sources: oil, gas, and coal.  They are called "nonrenewable" because, for all practical purposes, they're not being made any more.  The reason they are called "fossil" is because they were "produced" by nature from dead plants and animals over several hundred million years.

In the 1950s, oil producers discovered about fifty barrels of oil for every barrel invested in drilling and pumping.  Today, the figure is only about five for one.  Sometime around 2005, that figure will become one for one.  In other words, even if the price of oil reaches $500 a barrel, it wouldn't make energy sense to look for new oil in the United States after 2005 because it would consume more energy than it would recover.

The increasing energy cost of oil sets up a positive feedback loop: since oil is used directly or indirectly in everything, as the energy costs of oil increase, the energy costs of everything else increase too -- including other forms of energy.  For example, oil provides about 50% of the fuel used in coal extraction.[7]

Immutable energy laws tell us that a growing economy must eventually consume more energy than it can buy.  When America spends more-than-one unit of energy to produce enough goods and services to buy one unit of energy, it will be physically impossible to cover the overhead (money is irrelevant).  At that point, America's economic machine is "out of gas".  Forever!

EUR OIL

For many years, geologists and petroleum engineers have published estimates of how much oil can be recovered from any given basin.  This is known as "Estimated Ultimately Recoverable" (or EUR) oil.  Remarkably, estimates of total worldwide EUR oil have varied little over the past half century! [8]

Forty years ago, geologist M. King Hubbert developed a method for projecting future oil production and predicted that oil production in the lower 48 states would peak about 1970.  This prediction has proved to be remarkably accurate.  Both total and peak yields have risen slightly compared to Hubbert's original estimate, but the timing of the peak and the general downward trend of production were correct.  Hubbert showed that oil production begins to peak and starts to decline when approximately half of the EUR oil has been recovered.

IHS Energy Group (formerly Petroconsultants) is the world's leading provider of data and analysis for oil exploration and production.  The company maintains its headquarters at a custom-built communications center in Geneva.  It also has offices in London, Houston, Calgary, Sydney, Perth, Singapore and Hong Kong and a global information network.  The backbone of the company is a staff of 300, embracing numerous nationalities, cultures and professions, specializing in petroleum geology, geophysics, petroleum engineering, economics, political science, petroleum legislation, cartography, computer science and information technology. [9]

In 1995, Petroconsultants published a report for oil industry insiders ($32,000 per copy) titled WORLD OIL SUPPLY 1930-2050 which concluded that world oil production could peak as soon as the year 2000 and decline to half that level by 2025.  Large and permanent increases in oil prices are predicted after the year 2000. [10]

NO OIL?  NO ECONOMY!

If one considers the last one hundred years of the U.S. experience, fuel use and economic output are highly correlated... Energy quality is by far the dominant factor.
-- Cleveland, Costanza, Hall, and Kaufmann (Science 225: 890-897)

One of the most important aspects of energy is its "quality".  Different kinds of fuel have different qualities. For example, coal contains more energy per pound than wood, which makes coal more efficient to store and transport than wood.  Oil has a higher energy content per unit weight and burns at a higher temperature than coal; it is easier to transport, and can be used in internal combustion engines.  A diesel locomotive uses only one-fifth the energy of a coal-powered steam engine to pull the same train.

Oil is the highest quality energy we use, making up about 38 percent of the world energy supply.  No other energy source equals oil's intrinsic qualities of extractability, transportability, versatility and cost.  The qualities that enabled oil to take over from coal as the front-line energy source in the industrialized world in the middle of this century are as relevant today as they were then.  Oil's many advantages provide 1.3 to 2.45 times more economic value per kilocalorie than coal. [11]

Studies show that nothing can replace oil:  "A recent review of the future prospects of all alternatives has been published.  The summary conclusion reached is that there is no known complete substitute for petroleum in its many and varied uses."[12]  For example, when the oil's gone, food production will drop to a fraction of today's numbers: "If the fertilizers, partial irrigation [in part provided by oil energy], and pesticides were withdrawn, corn yields, for example, would drop from 130 bushels per acre to about 30 bushels." [13]

RICHARD DUNCAN: IT'S THE EXPORTS, STUPID!

In 1997, Richard Duncan developed a new model to forecast oil production called the NUMERATE-EMPIRIC MODEL.[14]  In the course of his research, Duncan discovered that Muslim nations would soon control market economies because they will control virtually all of the oil export market.  In a 1997 letter to President Clinton and Senator Jessie Helms, Duncan warned:

"What if tomorrow Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat met with representatives from each of the 19 Muslim petroleum exporting countries and proposed an entirely new organization called the 'Alliance of Muslim Petroleum Exporting Nations' -- 'AMPEC' for short?

"This proposal alone could cause World stock markets to fall 50% in one day.  And crucially, it could ignite both (1) a World Petroleum War, and (2) a World Holy War (called a 'Jihad' by Muslims).  I view an 'AMPEC shock' as looming likely because powerful Muslim forces are pushing Mr. Arafat (and others) further every day."

Senator Helms replied that America's oil dependence had become a threat to national security:  "The Commerce Department recently released a report which found that U.S. dependence on foreign oil has become a threat to national security.  The government should not have allowed its national security to be placed in such a vulnerable position."

...President Clinton was apparently too busy to reply...

Duncan is certainly right!  Who can forget the headlines of 1979:  "Shah flees Iran ... Ayatollah Khomeini returns from exile ... 63 Americans taken hostage in Iran ... many states initiate gas rationing programs ... ABC begins nightly report with 'The Iran Crisis: America Held Hostage' ... OPEC oil price increase tops 50 percent ..."

Although the names and faces will change, we will certainly see a rerun of 1979 because all Muslim countries are "authoritarian" political systems and therefore, inherently unstable:

"Only a handful of the more than four dozen predominantly Muslim countries have made significant strides toward establishing democratic systems.  Among this handful -- including Albania, Bangladesh, Jordan, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Mali, Pakistan, and Turkey -- not one has yet achieved full, stable, or secure democracy.  And the largest single regional bloc holding out against the global trend toward political pluralism comprises the Muslim countries of the Middle East and North Africa." [15]

OIL EXPORT POTENTIAL

A nation's oil "export potential" is determined by subtracting its oil consumption from its oil production.  For example, in 1998 Saudi Arabia produced 9,230 Kb/day and consumed 1,240 Kb/day.  Thus, the Saudi export potential is 7,999 Kb/day.  (No other country is even close to the Saudi's export potential!)  We can make a very rough estimate of Muslim exports by considering the exports of Muslim regions for 1998, as follows:

Region Percent
of World
Middle East 46%
North Africa 7%
West Africa 8%

FSU Caspian,
Indonesia and Malaysia

10%
Est. 1998 Muslim 71%

Most Muslim oil-exporting nations are experiencing serious cash flow problems and social unrest (e.g., Saudi Arabia) because of the failing "oil welfare" approach they've taken with their citizens.  However, these nations have a HUGE "savings account" in the form of oil reserves.  The Middle East alone has 64 percent of the world's proved oil reserves.  Add to that 9 percent (i.e., the FSU Muslim republics, 1.7 percent;  Muslim African nations, 6.7 percent;  Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei, 1 percent) and the Muslim nations have roughly 73 percent of the total world's proved oil reserves. (See BP Amoco 1999.  Of note: The data is from the oil industry itself.) Now that's money in the oily bank account, and the Muslims hold the checkbook.  It's just a matter of time until domestic unrest forces Muslim nations to coordinate their efforts and solve their cash flow problems for decades to come.

By 2010, Muslim nations could control 60 percent of the world's oil production and, more importantly, 95 percent of the world's oil exports.  In short, the Muslim exporting nations have Western economies by the throat.

THAT GIANT SUCKING SOUND

The United States is physically unable to produce enough oil domestically to keep its economy alive and is forced to rely on imports.  In 1998, the United States imported 53 percent of its oil needs.  This deficit is growing -- and will continue to grow until the economy collapses exactly like it did twenty-five years ago.  What's utterly amazing is that even though these data are available for everyone to see on the BP Amoco web site -- and in every major library for non-surfers -- there's nobody in the Oval Office who seems to know how to search the web (or the library)?  Even our "environmentalist VP" -- who claims to have "invented" the Internet -- is apparently unable (or unwilling) to access BP's database.

THE LAWS

The human species may be seen as having evolved in the service of entropy, and it cannot be expected to outlast the dense accumulations of energy that have helped define its niche.  Human beings like to believe they are in control of their destiny, but when the history of life on Earth is seen in perspective, the evolution of Homo sapiens is merely a transient episode that acts to redress the planet's energy balance.
- David Price.
[16]

The first law of thermodynamics (conservation law) states that there can be no creation of matter/energy.  The German physicist Helmholtz and the British physicist Lord Kelvin had explained the principle by the middle of the 19th century.  The second law (entropy law) states that spontaneous processes will increase the disorder (or entropy) of a system; concentrations of matter tend to disperse, structure tends to disappear, and order becomes disorder.  Moreover, all physical processes reduce the total available energy.

In 1824, the French physicist N. L. S. Carnot formulated the second law's concepts while working on "heat engines". [17]  Lord Kelvin and the German physicist Clausius eventually formalized Carnot's concepts as the second law of thermodynamics.  Most chemical engineering, all power plant engineering, internal combustion engineering, air-conditioning, and low-temperature physics are a few of the fields that owe their theoretical basis to thermodynamics.

Available energy is the prerequisite for any economic activity.  For example, lifting 15 kg of rock 5 meters out of the ground requires 735 joules of energy just to overcome gravity -- and the higher the lift, the greater the minimum energy requirements.[18]  The second law of thermodynamics places absolute limits the efficiency of the heat engines that power the global economy. [19]  A typical auto, bulldozer, truck, or power plant wastes more than 50 percent of the energy contained in its fuel!

By a hundred years ago, physics had incorporated the laws of thermodynamics.  Obviously, energy laws that govern the physical world also govern the economic world.  Physical scientists attempted to point out this crucial fact to economists:

"It is, in fact, the fate of all kinds of energy of position to be ultimately converted into energy of motion.  The former may be compared to money in a bank, or capital, the latter to money which we are in the act of spending ... If we pursue the analogy a step further, we shall see that the great capitalist is respected because he has the disposal of a great quantity of energy; and that whether he be nobleman or sovereign, or a general in command, he is powerful only from having something which enables him to make use of the services of others.  When a man of wealth pays a laboring man to work for him, he is in truth converting so much of his energy of position into actual energy...The world of mechanism is not a manufactory, in which energy is created, but rather a mart, into which we may bring energy of one kind and change or barter it for an equivalent of another kind, that suits us better -- but if we come with nothing in hand, with nothing we will most assuredly return." [Balfour Stewart, 1883] [20]

But economists never understood the laws of thermodynamics because they evolved to worship the Market God instead.

THE MARKET GOD

No discipline [ except economics ] attempts to make the world act as it thinks the world should act.  But of course what Homo sapiens does and what Homo economicus should do are often quite different.  That, however, does not make the basic model wrong, as it would in every other discipline.  It just means that actions must be taken to bend Homo sapiens into conformity with Homo economicus.  So, instead of adjusting theory to reality, reality is adjusted to theory.
-- Lester Thurow.
[21]

The human mind evolved to believe in gods... Acceptance of the supernatural conveyed a great advantage throughout prehistory, when the brain was evolving.  Thus it is in sharp contrast to [science] which was developed as a product of the modern age and is not underwritten by genetic algorithms.
-- E.O. Wilson.
[22]

A zoologist from Outer Space would immediately classify us as just a third species of chimpanzee, along with pygmy chimp of Zaire and the common chimp of the rest of tropical Africa.  Molecular genetic studies of the last half-dozen years have shown that we continue to share over 98 percent of our genetic program with the other two chimps.
-- Jared Diamond.
[23]

Genes are simply chemicals that direct the combination of more chemicals.  Edward Tatum and George Wells Beadle investigated the transmission of hereditary characteristics of genes and proved that particular genes are responsible for particular enzymes, and therefore all biochemical processes are regulated by genes.  For their work on genetics, they shared the 1958 Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine with Joshua Lederberg.  For over 400 years, we've known that genes drive behavior:

"Dogs provide a dramatic yet familiar example of genetic variability within species.  Despite their great variability in size and physical appearance, they are all members of the same species.  Dogs also illustrate within-species genetic effects on behavior.  Although physical differences are most obvious, dogs have been bred for centuries as much for their behavior as for their looks.  In 1576, the earliest English-language book on dogs classified breeds primarily on the basis of behavior.  For example, terriers (from terra, which is Latin for "earth") were bred to creep into burrows to drive out small animals.  Another book, published in 1686, described the behavior for which spaniels were originally selected.  They were bred to creep up on birds and then spring to frighten the birds into the hunter's net.  With the advent of the shotgun, different spaniels were bred to point rather than to spring.  The author of the 1686 work was especially interested in temperament: 'Spaniels by Nature are very loving, surpassing all other Creatures, for in Heat and Cold, Wet and Dry, Day and Night, they will not forsake their Master'.

"Behavioral classification of dogs continues today.  Sheepdogs herd, retrievers retrieve, trackers track, and pointers point with minimal training.  Breeds also differ strikingly in intelligence and in temperamental traits such as emotionality, activity, and aggressiveness.  The selection process can be quite fine tuned.  For example, in France, where dogs are used chiefly for farm work, there are 17 breeds of shepherd and stock dogs specializing in aspects of this work.  In England, dogs have been bred primarily for hunting, and there are 26 recognized breeds of hunting dogs.  Dogs are not unusual in their genetic diversity, although they are unusual in the extent to which different breeds have been intentionally bred to accentuate genetic differences." [24]

Animal behavior can be deduced by careful observation and explained by evolution theory.  By carefully observing terriers, we can deduce that they were selected to creep into burrows.  By carefully observing people, we can deduce they were selected to believe in virtually anything:

"Precisely what we believe is immaterial; what matters is the kind of behavior it generates.  This is why humanity is characterized by such astonishing diversity in its belief systems.  As far as our genes are concerned, we can believe that the universe is driven by an overweight fairy on a green cheese bicycle provided that such belief effectively coerces us into adopting genetically advantageous behavior in all matters of evolutionary consequence, such as feeding, mating, nurturing, bonding, and protecting family, tribe, and territory." [25]

Even though scientists pointed out over a hundred years ago that energy -- not money -- was the source of the capitalists' wealth, economists just didn't have the genes to give up their beliefs and face the real world.  In other words, two million years of evolution produced an animal that was ideally suited to worship the Market God. [26]

Adam Smith believed that God's divine plan was revealed in a free market: "the divine being ... contrived and conducted the immense machine of the universe, so as at all times to produce the greatest possible quantity of happiness."  Economic historian Deborah Redman explains:  "Because the order of nature is providential, the free market that reflects natural order also reflects the workings of providence.  In this way the spheres of morality, theology, jurisprudence, and economics become hostages to nature, so to speak." [27]

The first commandment of the Market God (as revealed by Adam Smith):  "Every man, as long as he does not violate the laws of justice, is left perfectly free to pursue his own interests in his own way, and to bring both his industry and capital into competition with those of any other man, or order of men."

The economists didn't have the genes to understand the physics they were struggling to impersonate:

"[ With the development of modern physics ] it became possible to see orthodox economic theory for what it really was: a bowdlerized imitation of nineteenth-century physics...It was not the methods of science that were appropriated by the early neoclassicals as it was the appearances of science, for the early neoclassicals possessed a singularly inept understanding of the physics they so admired...  [ Neoclassical economists attempt ] to reduce all social institutions such as money, property rights, and the market itself to epiphenomena of individual constrained optimization calculation.  All these attempts have failed, despite their supposed dependence upon mathematical rigor, because they always inadvertently assume what they aim to deduce...  Conservation principles are the key to the understanding of a mathematical formulation of any phenomenon, and it has been there that the neoclassicals have been woefully negligent."  [28]

"Once one gets the scorecard straight, then it will become apparent that twentieth-century neoclassical theory resembles nothing so much as the child's game of Mr. Potatohead -- the fun comes in mixing and matching components with little or no concern for the coherence of the final profile." [29]

Had economists evolved to understand the first and second laws of thermodynamics, they would have realized it was just a matter of time until global society entered a period of chronic energy shortage.  Since neither capital nor labor can create energy, central bankers will soon have no way to manipulate the economy:

"Increases or decreases in the level of money supply are thought to influence the level of production in the economy.  However, this is true only if the 'externals' to the economy -- i.e., sources of energy from outside of the money circle -- are constant.  When the availability of energy changes, the economy changes in ways not correctable by manipulations of the money supply." [30]

If central bankers try to stimulate the economy under conditions of chronic energy shortage, they will create "stagflation" instead:

"High inflation rates can be explained by the linkages between fuel use and money supply.  If the money supply is increased, stimulating demand beyond levels that can be satisfied by existing fuel supplies, then prices will rise.  This implies that when the costs of obtaining fuel are high, fiscal and monetary policies may not be successful in stimulating economic growth." [31]

The next round of energy-shortage-induced stagflation will leave central bankers helpless and they will seek military solutions to their economic problems.  This certainly isn't the first time that faith in the Market God has led to military solutions.

SAME BELIEF = SAME RESULT

The true nature of the highly artificial economic organization on which peace rested becomes of utmost significance to the historian.
-- Karl Polanyi

In late 1973 the first OPEC oil shock struck, as oil prices quadrupled and the general inflation indexes shot up to 11 percent.  More important, gasoline lines appeared.  Waiting in line to buy a basic commodity like gasoline is something that no American had ever experienced.  Shock and irritation were high, but those lines were like the first small heart attack -- an indication of mortality... What was worse, economists could pose no solution to the energy problem.  Influential professionals, such as Milton Friedman, predicted that the oil cartel would quickly fall apart.  It didn't.
-- Lester Thurow.
[32]

In the 19th century, economist Hermann Gossen proclaimed:  "It would only frustrate totally or in part the purpose of the Creator were we to attempt to neutralize [the free market] in total or in part, as is the intention of some moral codes promulgated by men."  And he asks with moral indignation:  "How can a creature be so arrogant as to frustrate totally or partly the purpose of his creator?" [33]  The economists' faith in the Market God led to two world wars and sent millions to their deaths.

No other historian has explained the human suffering caused by failed economic theories as well as Karl Polanyi:

"The origins of the cataclysm lay in the utopian endeavor of economic liberalism to set up a self-regulating market system." [p. 29]

"By the fourth quarter of the nineteenth century, world commodity prices were the central reality in the lives of millions of Continental peasants; the repercussions of the London money market were daily noted by businessmen all over the world; and governments discussed plans for the future in light of the situation on the world capital markets.  Only a madman would have doubted that the international economic system was the axis of the material existence of the race.  Because this system needed peace in order to function, the balance of power was made to serve it.  Take this economic system away and the peace interest would disappear from politics." [p. 18]

"By the end of the seventies the free trade episode (1846-79) was at an end; the actual use of the gold standard by Germany marked the beginnings of an era of protectionism and colonial expansion... the symptoms of the dissolution of the existing forms of world economy -- colonial rivalry and competition for exotic markets -- became acute.  The ability of haute finance to avert the spread of wars was diminishing rapidly.  For another seven years peace dragged on but it was only a question of time before the dissolution of nineteenth century economic organization would bring the Hundred Years' Peace to a close." [p. 19]

"The breakdown of the international gold standard was the invisible link between the disintegration of world economy since the turn of the century and the transformation of a whole civilization in the thirties.  Unless the vital importance of this factor is realized, it is not possible to see rightly either the mechanism which railroaded Europe to its doom, or the circumstances which accounted for the astounding fact that the forms and contents of a civilization should rest on so precarious foundations.

"The true nature of the international system under which we were living was not realized until it failed.  Hardly anyone understood the political function of the international monetary system; the awful suddenness of the transformation thus took the world completely by surprise... To liberal economists the gold standard was purely an economic institution; they refused even to consider it as a part of a social mechanism.  Thus it happened that the democratic countries were the last to realize the true nature of the catastrophe and the slowest to counter its effects.  Not even when the cataclysm was already upon them did their leaders see that behind the collapse of the international system there stood a long development within the most advanced countries which made that system anachronistic; in other words, the failure of market economy itself still escaped them." [p. 20]

"The transformation came on even more abruptly than is usually realized. World War I and the postwar revolutions still formed part of the nineteenth century.  The conflict of 1914-18 merely precipitated and immeasurably aggravated a crisis that it did not create.  But the roots of the dilemma could not be discerned at the time...The dissolution of the system of world economy which had been in progress since 1900 was responsible for the political tension that exploded in 1914." [p. 21] [34]

Exactly like the economists of one hundred years ago, and despite millions killed in two world wars by their mistakes, economists still worship the Market God.  Moreover, economists still haven't changed their inherently defective methodology.

Economists first abstract all commodities to money -- which of course, obliterates all qualitative differences between the commodities themselves, and leaves economists uniquely unqualified to know anything about the commodities they purport to study.

Although economists treat energy just like any other resource, it's not like any other resource.  Available energy is the precondition for all resources -- including more available energy!  Because of their total dependence on the measure of "money", today's most prominent economists are unable to know the difference between "libraries" and "oil":

"Should we be taking steps to limit the use of these most precious stocks of society's capital so that they will still be available for our grandchildren? ... Economists ask, Would future generations benefit more from larger stocks of natural capital such as oil, gas, and coal or from more produced capital such as additional scientists, better laboratories, and libraries linked together by information superhighways? ... in the long run, oil and gas are not essential." [Nobel Laureate Paul Samuelson and William Nordhaus] [35]

Talk about an evolutionary cul-de-sac!  The economists' devotion to the Market God coupled with their innate inability to know the difference between libraries and oil will lead to a new generation of wars and send billions to their deaths.

The next cycle of death will begin when the world experiences a severe oil crunch in less than ten years (probably less than five, perhaps much less).  The crunch will be triggered by a political upheaval in one or more of the major oil-producing nations, a Muslim backlash against America's friendship with Israel, OPEC reducing production to make more profit, or simply the natural -- and inevitable -- "peak" in global oil production.

Once the crunch is here, it's too late.  The global economy will go to hell and rational planning will be replaced by crisis management.  With the oil gone, there is nothing left to work with anyway.

The coming oil crunch is the best-kept secret in Washington, Whitehall, Brussels, and Jerusalem, but it's just a matter of time until word hits the street...

End Notes:

[1] THE PRIZE: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, by Daniel Yergin, Joseph Stanislaw (Contributor); Touchstone, 1993  http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0671799320/brainfood.a

[2] Richard Duncan's letter to President Clinton is archived at http://dieoff.com/page172.htm

[3] James Madison was the fourth President of the United States (1809-1817).  A member of the Continental Congress (1780-1783) and the Constitutional Convention (1787), he strongly supported ratification of the Constitution and was a contributor to The Federalist Papers (1787-1788), which argued the effectiveness of the proposed constitution.  Madison has been described by political historian Richard K. Matthews as the "ideal Machiavellian Prince", the "father of the Constitution", the "father of the Bill of Rights", the "father of political parties", and the "father of preferred freedoms".

[4] p. 79, IF MEN WERE ANGELS: James Madison & the Heartless Empire of Reason, by Richard K. Matthews; Kansas, 1995; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0700608079/brianfood.a

[5] ibid. p. 84.

[6] The net energy curve was found empirically by Hall, Cleveland and  Kaufmann working with Louisiana oil and gas wells. A very rough estimate is that the last 5% of production from a field might be at an energy loss (it doesn't say how much loss, the authors stopped computing when net energy reached .5).
Recent research suggests perverse subsidies total about $1.5 trillion per year worldwide. This is twice as large as global military spending each year and three times as much as the international narcotics industry. [ see http://www.websiteworld.co.uk/hot.htm ] Production at financial profit but energy loss is partially due to economic subsidies.

[7] p. 314, GETTING DOWN TO EARTH, by Robert Costanza et al., Eds.; Island Press, 1996; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559635037/brainfood.a

[8] OIL AS A FINITE RESOURCE: When Is Global Production Likely to Peak? by James J. MacKenzie; World Resources Institute, 1996;  http://www.wri.org/wri/climate/finitoil/eur-oil.html

[9] see  http://www.petroconsultants.com

[10] THE DEATH OF THE OIL ECONOMY, by Ted Trainer; Earth Island Journal, Spring 1997;  http://dieoff.com/page116.htm 

[11] p. 87, BEYOND OIL, by John Gever et al., Univ. Pr. Colorado, 1991; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0870812424/brainfood.a

[12] THE POST-PETROLEUM PARADIGM -- AND POPULATION, by Walter Youngquist; Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies Volume 20, Number 4, March 1999; http://www.dieoff.com/page171.htm

[13] ibid. Pimentel, D. (1998a).

[14] THE WORLD PETROLEUM LIFE-CYCLE: Encircling the Production Peak, by Richard Duncan, Institute on Energy and Man, Seattle, WA. 1997;  http://dieoff.com/page133.htm

[15] ISLAM AND LIBERAL DEMOCRACY: Two Visions Of Reformation, by Robin Wright; Journal of Democracy 7.2 (1996) 64-75;  http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/rwright.htm

One can make a rough estimate of the stability of Muslim nations by using Freedom House's list of "free" countries as a proxy for democracy, and the following list of Muslim countries:

Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Brunei, Cameroon, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Gambia, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, UAE, Uzbekistan, Yemen.  (Of course, not all were involved in wars.)

In the last thirty years, Muslim countries (which total 37) were involved in roughly 27 wars while "free" countries (which total 88) were involved in about 20 wars (including wars with Muslim countries).  http://freedomhouse.org/survey99/country/ http://www.gn.apc.org/peacepledge/wars/war_index.html

[16] ENERGY AND HUMAN EVOLUTION, by David Price, 1995; http://dieoff.com/page137.htm

[17] Internal combustion, steam, or gas turbines are called "heat engines" because they convert fuel into heat, then into mechanical motion.

[18] For a vertical lift: joules = meters X kg X 9.8

[19] A typical gasoline engine with a compression ratio of 8:1 cannot exceed a theoretical 45 percent efficiency, in practice might be about 35 percent; for a diesel with 20:1 it's 55 percent, 45 percent; for a turbine with 30:1 it's 60 percent, 50 percent.

[20] p. 132, MORE HEAT THAN LIGHT, by Philip Mirowski; Cambridge, 1989; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0521426898/brainfood.a

[21] DANGEROUS CURRENTS: The State of Economics, by Lester C. Thurow; Random, 1983; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0394723686/brainfood.a ;  http://dieoff.com/page162.htm

[22] The Biological Basis of Morality, E.O. Wilson http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/98apr/bio2.htm

[23] p. 2, THE THIRD CHIMPANZEE, by Jared Diamond; Harperperennial, 1992; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0060984031/brainfood.a

[24]  pp. 58-59. BEHAVIORAL GENETICS: Third Edition, Plomin et al; Freeman, 1997;  http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0716728249/brainfood.a

[25] p. 186, THE SPIRIT IN THE GENE: Humanity's Proud Illusion and the Laws of Nature, by Reg Morrison, Lynn Margulis; Cornell, 1999; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0801436516/brainfood.a

[26] Scientists search for truth by forming statements that can be tested.  If a statement cannot be tested, then it is not "scientific".  Testable statements are known as "hypotheses" and take the general form "IF [I do this], THEN [this will occur] ".  For example, the hypothesis "IF I drop a rock, THEN it will fall to the ground" it can be tested to see if it is "false".

In 1934, Sir Karl Popper proposed a criterion of testability, or falsifiability, for scientific validity.  Scientific theories are hypotheses from which can be deduced statements testable by observation; if the appropriate experimental observations falsify these statements, the hypothesis is refuted.  If a hypothesis survives efforts to falsify it, it may be tentatively accepted.  No scientific theory, however, can be conclusively established.

Popper's mode of thought -- the habit of attempting to prove oneself wrong -- is the only path to knowledge about the real world.

Evolutionary psychologists have found that humans evolved to naturally use a "falsification strategy" with respect to the social world, but use a "confirmation strategy" with respect to the physical world.  Our innate social-world "falsification strategy" causes us to instinctively reject social anomalies and attempt to "falsify" claims about the real world that might jeopardize social beliefs (e.g., the claim that global oil production will "peak" soon).

On the other hand, our innate physical-world "confirmation strategy" allows us to defend social constructions of reality (e.g., the "free market") to the death, even if the ideals they represent are far from physical reality.  The most notorious example of this "confirmation strategy" was Julian Simon.

"Consider first a phenomenon I call the deontic effect in human reasoning (Cummins, 1996b, 1996c). Deontic reasoning is reasoning about rights and obligations; that is, reasoning about what one is permitted, obligated, or forbidden to do (Hilpinen, 1981; Manktelow & Over, 1991).  Deontic reasoning contrasts with indicative reasoning, which is reasoning about what is true or false.  When reasoning about deontic rules (social norms), humans spontaneously adopt a violation-detection strategy: They look for cheaters or rule-breakers.  In contrast, when reasoning about the truth status of statements about the world, they spontaneously adopt a confirmation-seeking strategy.  This effect is apparent in the reasoning of children as young as three years of age (Cummins, 1996a; Harris & Nuez, 1996) and has been observed in literally hundreds of experiments on adult reasoning over the course of nearly thirty years, making it one of the most reliable effects in the psychological literature (see Cummins, 1996b, 1996c, and Oaksford & Chapter, 1996 for reviews of this literature)." [pp. 39, 40] THE EVOLUTION OF MIND, by Denise D. Cummins (Editor), Colin Allen (Editor), Oxford, 1998  http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0195110536/brainfood.a

[27] p. 237, THE RISE OF POLITICAL ECONOMY AS A SCIENCE, Deborah Redman; MIT, 1997 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0262181797/brainfood.a

[28] p. 6, AGAINST MECHANISM: Protecting Economics from Science, by Philip Mirowski; Rowman and Littlefield, 1988;  http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0847676951/brainfood.a 

[29] p. 294, Mirowski, 1989

[30] H.T. Odum in pp. 204-206, A SURVEY OF ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, Krishnan, Harris, and Goodwin, eds., Island Press, 1995;  http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559634111/brainfood.a

[31] SUMMARY OF ENERGY AND THE US ECONOMY: A Biophysical Perspective by Cutler J. Cleveland, Robert Costanza, Charles A.S. Hall, and Robert Kaufmann; Science 225 (31 August 1984): 890-897. http://dieoff.com/page17.htm#energy

[32] DANGEROUS CURRENTS: The State of Economics, by Lester C. Thurow; Random, 1983; http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0394723686/brainfood.a ;  http://dieoff.com/page162.htm

[33] p. 45, HUMANIST ECONOMICS: The New Challenge, by Mark Lutz and Kenneth Lux; Bootstrap Press, 1988;  http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0942850068/brainfood.a

Soure: www.dieoff.org


  Category: Americas, World Affairs
  Topics: Economy, Free Market
Views: 13020

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Older Comments:
ZAYNAH MAHIR FROM USA said:
It may further be asserted, that the US has and will conspire with Russia, and others to genocide Muslim peoples in order to get the oil . Fredom is not an issue. Its a petroleum based civilization. This is evident by their shift from hating marxism to hating Islam.
In the early 80's they brought this KGB defector to the universities he said 'you Americans dont have to worry about us soviets.... 'you should worry about those eeevil Muslims '. All these prosperous well dressed middle aged people (now they'd be 70) clapped real load. This was in Goldwater's territory. Since the Muslims are the last buffer to communism their elimination will assure the eventual dominion of marxism .Muslims have been a buffer against the communists . That the US would arm the Baathist party stalinists in Iraq was incomprehensibly stupid. It was also proxy genocide. The US Militarily aids anyone who helps them depopulate oil producing regions of the world- Chiapas, Columbia,Iraq,Muslim lands. War assists the depopulation and it's profitable for them . We Muslims are the last fully functional traditional culture. They hate us for that. Peace with Islamic peoples would have been easy but it wasnt profitable. War is profitable .
Legislate for R&D solar , wind power, hydro, geothermal and a replacement for internal combustion engine. Take the funding from the space industry .
This situation is analogoius to events of the 15th century (huggonot massacre ) . Read: Catherine di Medici and the Lost Revolution, Knoph pub '49 ?
Apply the analogy between the king of France and his dependence on John Calvin to the Bush clan and his dependence on wahabi Saudis.
()

DAVID WOOD FROM USA said:
Secret!? Of course not.Id like to take this opportunity to advise my fellow citizens to support the movement toward fuel-cell technology. Yes, it will be expensive,but it falls under the definition of thoughtful planning. This technology is proven to be viable, and after the enormous initial outlay could freface a new chapter in geopolitics in which petroleum would play only a minor part.
()

EMILIANO FROM USA said:
Very informative article. Very astute analysis indeed. And ss usual I find Grendizer kicking butt....keep up the good work!
()

GRENDIZER FROM UK said:
I hear you loud and clear Malik. This forum should be used for personal attacks....however I cant help myself when racist trolls like Csaba start with their rancid vitriol.
That being said...I notice Csaba the Islamophobe loser is back in yet another desperate post to put in the final word in order to save whatever face he has left. I guess that beauty contest in his area didnt tantalize the poor fellow enough. LOL!
()

MALIK FROM USA said:
Hey Grenizer and Csabe Cere this is not a Personal debate forum so please if you would like to carry your personal attacks on each other find a chatroom or something .....thanks
()

CSABA CERE FROM MEXICO said:
Grendizer - you're a funny little man, talking about me being a sore loser, when the only loser here is you.

And, true to form, you've posted responding to stuff that only exists in your head. Would you care to mention what 'anti-Islamic drivel' I've posted? Something 'racist' that I've said perhaps?

Maybe you should go back to watching your Grendizer cartoons. Just a hint when you are watching them - they're not real. I know you have difficulties telling fantasy from reality, so I thought I'd help out.
()

YAKOUB PURCHES FROM ENGLAND said:
Depressing outlook for the future, but sadly is
more than inevitable. Perhaps it is the turn of
Islam to take leadership in this world once
more. Moral degeneracy results from too
much energy, so reducing the available
energy will do us all a favour, in the long term
at least.
()

GRENDIZER FROM UK said:
Csaba you still here little man ? Talk about a sore loser. You might want to think twice before posting anti-Islamic drivel here.
So did you read that book yet, or has the sheer power of the facts destroyed whatever was left of your brain ? Another racist deflated!
()

YAHYA BERGUM FROM USA said:
May God sustain my country - free of any dependence on tribute - and guide my country towards suggesting alternative (and effective) uses for it. Surely were God to bless my country with all it requires, then any form of "tribute" we might receive should, out of our fear of God, be redirected towards ways that further the interests of basically anyone other than ourselves. Are you listening?

Please forgive me if the following request does not seem to pertain to the article under discussion - but please consider the second verse of the Quran which says, "All praise is due to Allah, the Lord of the Worlds," as translated by M. H. Shakir. Next, please contemplate the term "Worlds" and then ponder why religious authorities, of any apparent intelligence, would have been so violently opposed to public disclosures of Galileo's (seemingly harmless) astronomical observations. What scriptures might be validated by Galileo's work? Who would have quite likely known of the messages contained in such scriptures? What abstract religious concepts might have been challenged by Galileo's work? Should God's "anointed authority" over this world - may God shower the anointed one with peace and blessings - be naturally assumed to have the same authority over all other worlds as well?

Thank you for your time.

God (alone) is great!

God (alone) is worthy of praise.

God (alone) is worthy of worship.

In God (alone) should we entrust (all of) our hopes.

God (alone) is the sustainer, cherisher and master over all the worlds.

Of God (alone) should have (abject) fear - especially if are we claiming to have been promised salvation.

It is God (alone) we have to thank for everything we have ever had (or even been offered) including the insignificant awareness that God has willed us to receive.

Peace be upon you. May God grant you blessings - and may you be grateful to God for having received them. May God forgive us all.
Ameen.
()

MUHAMMED SHAIKH FROM USA said:
ALLAH HAS GIVEN OIL AS HIDDEN TRASURE TO MUSLIM NATIONS. ONLY QUETIONS ARE MUSLIMS RULERS. AS LONG AS RULERS ARE HONEST AND BEING FAIR TO THEIR PEOPLE, EVERYTHING WILL BE OK, OR TIME WILL COME IN THOSE COUNTRIES WHICH RULERS ARE DICTATORS AND PEOPLE WILL BRING REVOLUTIONS AND THERE WILL BE OIL CRISIS. IT WILL HAPPEN. IN AMERICAN TERM IT'S CALLED " EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY "
()

AHMAD BEN ABDELLAH FROM USA said:
IT'S THE OIL STUPID...
Peace.
()

CSABA CERE FROM MEXICO said:
Grendizer, buddy! It's been too long since we've heard from you! Nice to see that you can still make up things off the top of your head at a moments notice. If you would only care to read, you would notice that not only did my last post have nothing to do with rioting in Nigeria, I have never tried to make a link between the riots and the oil crunch. Are you reading from the same site as the rest of us?

You wrote - "Your childish attempt at slandering me is laughable given that your record of genocide is unmatched in history.". ?My? record of genocide? And what record of genocide would that be? You know, if I had wiped out a race, you'd think I'd remember it, wouldn't you? You'd think that at least I would have read about it somewhere.

Is English your second language? I mean, if it is, I'm willing to cut you some slack. Hey, it's my second language, so I'll understand.

It's kind of funny how you accuse me of using the Holocaust in my 'lame comments', and yet you never actually respond to anything I wrote. I tell you that Ahmed's post wasn't American history as you claimed it to be, give examples of things in his post that had nothing to do with the US, and you try to work it back to... what? I'm a Zionist now because one of the six points was about the Holocaust? Pretty far leap, even for what you pass off as logic.

I think we'd all appreciate it if at any time you'd care to post content instead of vitriol.
()

YAHYA BERGUM FROM USA said:
I think that Islamic states should be sure to levy the Jizyah - so as to better assure that religious tolerance would be an important concern to those in authority. Besides, please consider, how would one of Allah's prophets (peace be upon him) be expected to provide "This Ummah" with a clear sign upon his return by abolishing a tax perhaps otherwise not even considered worth mentioning?

Regardless of the form of government with which Allah (The Lord Of The Worlds) chooses to bless us, I suggest that politeness, as demonstrated through administrative decisions, is but one aspect of a complete obedience to Allah. I suggest, also, that sincerity and good business practices would number among some of the other aspects of complete obedience to Allah.

(wassalam alaikum)
()

ESTHER FROM USA said:
I want to state that I do not think people with Aids are evil, and I certainly don't think they deserve getting Aids.
()

WOLFGANG K. FROM GERMANY said:
Shalom,
Very informative article.
()

EMILIANO FROM USA said:
You are correct Esther, that there are stupid people on this board...YOU being one of them with your uninformed, hostile and racist posts. I honestly wonder what makes extremists like you tick.
Lack of education has a lot to do with the spread of AIDS, not just some lack of morals as you would like to believe. If morality is an indicator of HIV transmission..."conservative christians" like Pat, Jerry and Franklin would have full blown AIDS, given their lack of morals or dignity. The gene pool certainly wouldn't miss them.
()

GRENDIZER FROM UK said:
Alas Csaba you really are down to your reserves, its evident that last post sent you reeling. You're the sorry individual who is hopped up on paranoia making nonsensical links between Rioting in Nigeria and the coming oil crunch within the cast "Islamic conspiracy."
Your childish attempt at slandering me is laughable given that your record of genocide is unmatched in history. We know about the Holocaust so dont trivialize to a crutch in your weak and lame comments....go read a history book, preferably suited for one who can read and reason at the adult level.
And finally, feel free to return to the topic at hand- the oil crunch, as soon as you quit daydreaming about looking up some model's skirt at the beauty paegent.
()

CSABA CERE FROM MEXICO said:
Hey everybody look, Grendizer has posted again!
What a treat!

Ahmed had a very interesting post, and I sincerely
thank him for that, but again, Grendizer has
missed the point. It was not an 'American' history
lesson, unless Grendizer's paranoid theories include
Americans killing 6 million Jews, 6 million Chinese
2 million Poles, 1/2 million Tibetans or 2
million in Rwanda and Sierra Leone. And I'll have
to check my facts, but I'm pretty sure that the US
isn't conficating lands fron White farmers in
Zimbabwe. Grendizer, do you actually read any of
these posts?

Also, to Ahmed, I did notice that you have a couple
of omissions, such as 1.5 million Albanians and 1
5,000 in Hama. Some of your points are a little
questionable, such as not considering women as
persons until 1940. I think the point should be
how far women's rights have progressed, especially
compared to those countries which are not part of
'the West'. What is a woman's role in Pakistan or
Saudi Arabia, for instance? In all, though, I
appreciate the point you are making. Heck, I
appreciate the fact that, unlike Grendizer, you
are making a point!

Also, God help me when Esther is on my side.
()

ESTHER FROM USA said:
Emiliano, people sure would less likely get Aids if they didn't sleep around, and using dirty needles. Yes God station a life guard at the gene pool because there are a lot of stupid people on this board. But the truth is stupid people breed a lot.
()

EMILIANO FROM USA said:
Csaba, you dont honestly expect to anyone to believe you care about Nigerians do you ? Apparently you feel that Muslims should tolerate incitement of hatred against their faith....the riots were wrong, as was the initial incitement towards it by the idiots who deliberetly published the deeply offensive article.
And speaking of killing in the name of religion....ever heard of Franklin Graham, Pat Robertson, or Jerry Falwell ? These criminals fund Israeli terrorism in hopes of igniting Armageddon in the Middle East. Seems you have no problem ignoring that on your radar. Guess that happens when we're concerned deeply over beauty contests to pay any attention, dont we?
And Esther...you as usual have nothing but groundless babble to add. I bet you think AIDS research and funding is a waste of time since those infected are ALL bad evil people right ? You're a silly immature christian extremist and your fake morality is painfully evident. God seriously needs to station a life guard at the gene pool.
()

GRENDIZER FROM UK said:
Great post Ahmed, nothing like a quick American history lesson to deflate hypocrtical windbags csaba and esther dumbfounded.
I cant figure what the Nigerian riots have to do with the coming energy crunch as csaba is determined to link these two totally unrelated events. It goes to show how low some bigots are prepared to go in their hatred for Islam and Muslims.
These sad individuals havent learnt a thing since 4th grade it seems.
()

MR_X FROM NATION X said:
If/when the Oil Crunch does occur, all nations will become economically, socially and politically unstable on a grand scale. So its not in the best interests of the oil producing Islamic Nations to curb their oil exports too much to increase their profits in reaction to certain political events or actions they do not like.

The only way to curb this problem is to scrap economics and the capitalist ethic altogether and form a new way of managing the global economy, woops, sorry, the Biosphere (Earth) - ECOLOGY. Ecology would use real or objective variables in managing the Biosphere. The objective variables are social needs and environmental needs. It are these varibales that Ecologists would use to manage the bioshpere. Science and technology would be used to create re-neweable energy resources (eg. windpower and solar power), thus diminishing the world's dependence on oil. I am sure synthetic oils will be used for miscellaneous things, such as moving parts. With time and advancements in science I am sure the nature of transportation will dramatically change.

In relation to religion, I believe mass or mono-religions will slowly deteriorate over a period of time, and spiritual matters will become very personal for each individual on this planet. This change will mostly be brought about by our constant curiosity, questioning, discovery, and desire of understanding our existence in the universe.

Right now, there is no time for egotistical posturing by any individual, ideaology race, creed or religion. It is time to GET REAL. Religious ideologies or any fixed or inflexible belief system will NOT save us from ourselves.
()

RASHEED SYED FROM UNITED STATES said:
What are u going to when U.S take over middle east: They already initiated: Saudia Arabia, for the first time had to take money from world bank.
We are no more: all the muslim people and muslim leaders are just going to be a mystery for the future generations...

Oil: i understand it is a need of U.S and western nations: however, when they kill muslim one at a time, like they are doing now.... We are weak...
Our strenght is not oil but unity...
Which is impossible to attain: one of the major factor is Language...

I like american people, my friends and neighbors...
but i have doughts about U.S Government....

Once they get IRAQ... then other nations are next...

Open your eyes...

Can this Oil bring peace to the world: answer is: NO....Its going to bring wars which humanity/ muslims haven't seen before....

coming events cast their shadows before...

We are no more... They are killing us one at a time... we know it and we can't do anything about it... muslim unity weakness....

ameican people do not war, yet the government is going for wars...going to kill innocent muslims over what? West Agenda: ISREAL, MIDDLE East control of oil, and power....forming a kingdom for Jesus Christ:... I wonder if Jesus wants Bush to Attack Islam, kill innocent muslims... I wonder if Jesus is going to forgive american government and the associates...

God Bless America and World... And Bring Peace in World... We don't want wars or killing of muslim people....

May god give patientence to Jews... good ones of course... and show right way to the bad jews...

OIL: Is is Death for Muslim Nations...

Get ready: Big Fish: U.S is going to Eat small fishes: Muslim nations....

God Bless: Muslim people...
and show right way to american government...

Keep all the bad muslim out of this world... they are ruining our image...our culture... our beliefs...

Priests are taking advantag of such things and saying bad thing about isl
()

YAHYA BERGUM FROM USA said:
Wallah-Billah, I am more concerned about my country's effect on others (than the other way around). May God assist my country to due what is right and may God provide our adversaries with adequate shelter from ourselves -- Ameen.

God bless the Prophet Muhammad (God bless him).

Oh, Allah, guide my country to fear only Thee, for Thou art (indeed) the Lord of the Worlds. Oh, Allah, grant that my country might be sustained by Thy Blessings alone, for Thou art the Cherisher and Sustainer of the Worlds. Oh, Allah, guide my country to worship only Thee, for Thou art (alone) worthy of worship. Oh, Allah, guide my country to praise only Thee, for Thou art (alone) worthy of praise. Oh, Allah, guide my country to correctly serve Thee, for Thine (Own) Glory is the best possible reward.

(Oh, Allah, truly Oft-Forgiving, loving forgiveness, forgive [us].)
()

AHMED FROM MOROCCO said:
csaba and esther both of you are right.you don't learn civilization and maturity from the muslims,but you learn it from the very civilized and mature ones.
the ones Who killed thousands of aboriginal people in North America and Australia in order to occupy their lands and properties.
the ones who killed millions of South Americans.
the ones who killed millions of human beings in World War I who killed 6 million Jews during World War II.
the ones who killed 2 million Polish Christians in World War II .(although we have to accept them as world wars,what hpocrisy and distortion of truth !!! )

the ones who killed 6 million Chinese during the invasion of China.
the ones who killed 2 million Cambodian during the civil war.
the ones who killed more than 2 million Filipinos during invasion of Philippines.
the ones who killed more than half million Tibetans during the last 6 decades.
the ones who killed more than 2 million Vietnamese during the Vietnam War.
the ones who dropped chemical and biological bombs on Vietnam.
the ones who dropped nuclear bombs on Japan and killed thousands of people in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
the ones who killed more than 2 million African Christians in Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Burundi and Congo within the last two decades.
the ones who made more than 9.5 million human beings refugees in Africa.
the ones who are killing and confiscating lands from White farmers in Zimbabwe.
the ones who invented the nuclear, biological and chemical bombs.
the ones who sell the most sophisticated bombs and the best killing machines to the world.
the ones who killed hundreds of blacks in America and did not consider them as human beings until 1960s.
the ones who did not consider women as persons until 1940s?
I challenge both of you to prove that the most of the above holocaust and genocide of human race were not caused by the people who claimed to be civilized?
()

CSABA CERE FROM MEXICO said:
Emiliano, I'm not concerned about mere riots over
beauty contests, I'm concerned about people killing
over 200 in the name of their religion. The fact
that it was initially over a beauty contests is
secondary. Is it your idea of maturity that a
dumb comment can be used as an excuse
for murder? Is it your idea of maturity that a
fatwa can be issued for the death of the reported
who made the comment, regardless of the fact that
both she and her newspaper apologized repeatedly?
Is that your idea of Mulsim compassion? It seems
to be, because you're defending those views.

The reporter and her newspaper's apologies are a
pretty good indication that they were not trying to
incite violence. What is there in the actions
of the rioting Muslims to indicate they weren't
trying to incite violence?

I don't consider it to be the height of maturity
to call women you don't even know bimbos, but I
guess that is merely a glimpse into your misogynist
nature. You might want to think about your
own skewed views on women instead of pondering an
energy crises. It might even make you less
immature.
()

ESTHER FROM USA said:
Elimiano, Csaba is right. I would not learn about acting mature from Muslims. I not a fan of beauty pagents. They are a waste of time. Oh well most people in the world have no moral values anyway. This is seen by the killing, growing of drugs, and of how big Aids is.
()

EMILIANO FROM USA said:
Csaba I'm sure you could learn a lot from Muslims. You might also want to pick up a few lessons in logic along the way. If you're so concerned about riots over beauty contests...you might want to consider condemning individuals who thrive on inciting violence and hatred by targetting personalities which are revered by billions in the first place.
Dont avoid the real issue here, face the issue of your greed like a man....in fact maybe you should ponder the coming energy crunch instead of gawking at scantily clad bimbos. It'll serve you better and may even make you less immature.
()

CSABA CERE FROM MEXICO said:
Tom's comment: This proves to me the immaturity of the western society...

Tom: Do you think we should take maturity lessons from Muslims? I need to know, because there is going to be a beauty contest in my area in a couple of weeks, and I'm wondering if I should riot and kill hundreds in the name of my religion.

Thanks for your help.

Csaba.
()

TOM said:
This proves to me the immaturity of the western society because they are prepared to go to war to cement their economy, rather than evolve and develop their economies to use other forms of energy ( like renewalable energy - this is the 21st century after-all!!)
()

FAZAL AHMED FROM UAE said:
These projections may have been planned by the enemies of Islam to bring about the wrong decisions at the wrong time. Beware of the dogs in persuant of the plate of meat! Don't fall prey!
()

CHARLES JACKS FROM USA said:
I think as Muslims we are putting effort into the wrong places. We will not obtain our human rights or teach them the duties of Love until we can get the Christians back to monotheism, 5:12-14. Till then we are trying to fight against the symptoms of a command of Allah and there is no might but with Allah. However, Jesus (PBUH) was a prophet and taught Islam just as the rest of the prophets, 2:136-140. Further, "who is more unjust than he who hides a testimony" 2:140 so we need to do as God has commanded us in 3:64-68 and Jesus (PBUH) as expressed in 3:52-55. We need to remember that "those that submit their wills to God" have been called Muslims since Abraham (PBUH) 78:22 and that God selects on the basis of monotheism, submission and a good heart not the name of the religion. We need to remember that if the Christians would follow the words of Jesus (PBUH) instead of worshiping him they to would be Muslims 53:28 so we would be doing no wrong to teach the Christians the words of Jesus (PBUH) and may well be disobeying Allah by not doing so 3:79-81 3:52-53. At the minimum it would be applying effort at a point that is not going against a command of God 5:14.
It is too much of a jump for a high percentage of Christians to accept the Quran but it shouldn't be too difficult to get the majority to accept the authority of the portions of the Bible that are quotes of Jesus. Praise be to God, Jesus' quotes in the Bible still point to Islamic monotheism and if we could teach them from that perspective we might be able to break their curse of polytheism. It is easer for a Christian to stop worshiping Jesus and start listening to him (PBUH) thereby becoming a Muslim than it is to jump into modern Islam. Our forefathers brought them out of their technological dark ages with the renaissance, it is up to us to bring them out of their polytheistic dark ages. I fear for us all if we don't try. 3:81 3:52-53 3:140 3:136 3:64-66 78:22 53:28 Surely this is a part of our covenant.
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CHARLES JACKS FROM USA said:
Both oil and water are necessary for the level of food production in the world. California is starting to see legal battles over water between the farmers and cities already. Strangely enough there is a simple method of getting both potable water and energy out of the oceans. If all you wanted was the energy you could just dump the fresh water (or energy). And since the oceans will remain deep and salty this is essentially a perpetual energy source (and water source). There are, however, a few engineering problems to overcome, mainly in the transshipment of the products. Someday the financing will likely turn positive or it could be done as a government project. Thankfully, the majority of humanity lives within 100 miles of the oceans.

Also many continents have one or more desert regions that could be turned to solar energy production, the problem is that at present the oil companies are pumping at a level that will keep many alternatives financially infeasible. That obviously can't last forever but it leaves humanity unprepared. This is why I say that the countries that will survive are the ones that will shift to new technologies. OPEC sets its production allocations based on known reserves and they will run out very close to each other. If the California experience of last year is an example there will be bidding wars or hot wars over the other fields causing the price to suddenly shift to astronomical levels. The developed countries will become like a scuba diver that runs out of air at 200 feet, panic and dead before reaching the surface. The prepared countries will make trillions selling energy.

On the other hand as of 2000 more people live in cities than the country side and the developing countries populations are striping their environments just for cooking fuel. There are a lot of hard decisions to be made if humanity is not to go into cycles of war, starvation and disease from weakened immune systems.

What are the "leaders" up to?
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ALI FROM UK said:
Time for an oil embargo !
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HAYAO FROM USA said:
Peter Jefferies little rant shows once again the contradiction that is American foriegn policy.
In the real world, its Islam which is being embraced by an increasing number of Americans despite one of the most vicious antisemetic campaigns to defame Islam.
What has become totally irrelevent is US propoganda aimed at deceiving people around the world that the US actually stands for something besides greed and ruthless ambition. It is Americas policy makers and their apologists who are living in the past if they believe they can get away with launching more wars to steal energy sources and come out preserving their phony image as a nation of principles.
So pete you better think long and hard before repeating propoganda about oil and global politics..b/c as is you're coming off as quite the nuisance.
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ISA FROM CANADA said:
It is only when people began to leave this lifestyle of "wealth accumulation" and "materialism" will we see progress. A great man once said; "you can buy many things in life, but you can not buy a "peace of mind".

If you look at the average American family, both mother and father are working day and night. What for? So they reach a hope unattainable, "the American dream". Frankly, if the American dream means putting in long hours in the office, bitter health, unstable marriage, lost time with your kids, and well known symptoms of stress and depression, then surly this is one dream I wish not to share.

The solution I believe lies in love for another. This is found in Islam and regardless, and whatever you may have heard and seen in the media about Islam and Muslims, Islam is the true word of God. Is the mere fact that thousands of people convert(revert) to Islam every single day, not proof enough!

On a personal level, Islam for me, has fulfilled my soul with something I yearned, and which no monetary amount could fill. It has truly changed my life and made me think of others before thinking of myself.

Whatever NEGATIVE encounters you may have seen, felt, or even had with Muslims, I apologize for. Please DO NOT, and I repeat DO NOT let the actions of a few, form your viewpoint on what Islam is, as it is the truth!

I pray and hope that you will do your own research on Islam, and see for yourself what it really is. As I said earlier thousands and thousands of people a DAY, yes a DAY are becoming Muslim, there has to be something there. I have nothing to gain by writing this post, but to know that I have shared something which I value you so much.

Thank you for taking the time to read this post. If you would like to email me, please feel free anytime at [email protected]

Take Care,

SFK





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AHMED FROM MOROCCO said:

peter
which of these is a true statment ?
a-I watch Fox news.
B-I listen to cnn news.
C-I watch fox news and listen to cnn news.
d-All of the above.
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NUR IMAN FROM CANADA said:
It is by God's will that Muslim countries control
the most sought after resourse in this world. No
matter what spin you want to put on it, it is part
of a Divine Plan. What these Muslim countries
do with this gift is the test.
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PETER JEFFERIES FROM USA said:
Too many contradictions. Which is the cause of the next war? Energy? Or Islams struggle to hang onto the past?

Any imminient oil crises would be political, such as the 1973 "heart attack". Which as it turns out wasn't a heart attack at all. There is far more oil availble than many "hoped".

The real key to ubundant energy is peace. Huge resources currently spent defending freedom, (you must hate that) could be allocated to the betterment of humanity, such as the quest for alternative sources of energy. Fussion, super conductive materials and others. Educating woman.

Articles such as "The Secret Oil Crunch" are designed to distract from what is really happening today in Islam. The ubiquitous death and destruction perpetuated against fellow man, in the name of Islam . (Read the world headlines on any day for anidotal evidence)

Islam, the root of the current world crises, still continues to point every where but at itself. "It is the oil", "it is the Jews", "it is the USA's policies", "it is McDonalds", all these are false, it is Islam. It is obvious. Muslims are the ones initiating the killings around the world. This cannot be denied. Islams solution to problems is death. (Look at Nigeria as the most recent example)

Fortunately for the rest of the world, Islam is its' own worst enemy for any serious conflict. Because of it's teaching, Islam has no industry. You see, no where in Islam do they make fighter jets. So at worst for a short time, Islam can be a nusance to the greater world society. This nusance will only get smaller, perhaps never go away completely, but become for the most part irrelivant.

Be true to yourself, then and only then can you see the truth.

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JON OSWALD FROM AUSTRALIA said:
we are experincing it, and soon the whole world will, and that is short supply not of oil but of water, so we shud address that now rather than oil shortage.
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VICTOR FROM ENGLAND said:
To J.D Ryan,

The popular argument of alternative's is just propoganda to keep those stupid heads of OPEC in line.

Nevermind running economies, you'll have problems running Tanks and Planes on rose oil !

Its a bluff, the idea was to never get caught in the position to be called on the bluff.


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J.D. RYAN FROM US said:
A national research & development program to develop alternatives to fossil fuels, with as much
vigor and funding as Kennedy's moon shot should have been launched years ago. There is an ever
more popular argument that various technologies are being withheld from the consumers of the world.
Bring all those technologies to the fore, and reward those who developed them with jobs and corporate
missions to replace any lost in the fossil fuels sectors.
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LEYLA LILAY FROM UZBEKISTAN said:
Assalamu alaykum,

First of all thanks for writing this article and letting Ummah know about the contemporary issues that can be solved. I personally didn't have much knowledge about the oil importance in this rapidly changing world, even though have financial background. I truly enjoyed reading the article and finding out all these details.

Just a note for Muslims, who can in fact make changes, please do try to unite the Ummah, and I believe the time has come to end poverty not only in Muslim world but everywhere else. If the oil industry is the tool, lets go for it.

As one of those who can't influence on oil industry I will at least know what to make my Dua for during these Blessed Month of Ramadan.

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CHARLES JACKS FROM USA said:
US oil production is now 47% of what it was in the 1970's and the US oil companies are seeing greatly reduced revenues as a result. If the Whitehouse can engineer an oil war every person in the Whitehouse from Bush to Rice stands to make millions from increased prices and new oil fields. Redrawing the map to give them control of the Muslim oil fields would be even more profitable. To pull the rug out from under a global war that gives them cart blanch to do whatever they desire we need to remove their excuses. I suggest we start with the question of Israel. (key to stability)

If the US were to give the Jews land within their own border for a mini-nation like they have done for the Native Americans the Jews can have their safe haven, the US can plow all that foreign aid back into their economy by earmarking it for US companies to build the New Israel and the Palestinians can have their land back.

I think the Muslims need to take the moral high ground by supporting a solution that gives each party its just Goals. I would suggest that we should question the motives of anyone that wouldn't support this solution. Further, if the Muslims would publicize this solution and refuse to negotiate on the basis of any other less optimal solution they remove the PR benefit the US and Israel hoodwink people with. The Jews might claim that the land was given to them perpetuity but the deal had a clause that read "for as long as you keep the commandments". As the second Diaspora was the third exile of the Jews from the land of Palestine we can take stock in Jesus' words (near the end of Matthew) that the second temple would be destroyed and the Jews would be replaced by another people, thus ending their claim.

Of course the energy problem will only be solved by switching to an eco-industrial complex just as the US moved into a military-industrial complex. Only the countries that do so will survive and the first will be the best off as it will be the economic leade
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YACOOB KADWA FROM RSA said:
ANOTHER INTERESTING TWIST TO THE OIL TAIL. U KNOW THE WORLD PAYS MORE FOR COCA COLA THAN OIL. YET COCA COLA IS MORE THAN 95% WATER WHICH IS NOT DIFFICULT TO GET AT COMPAREWD TO THE HUGE COSTS OF OIL EXTRACTION. WHY? BECAUSE COCA COLA IS AN AMERICAN RESOURCE AND THEY DON'T SELL IT FOR CHEAP. WAKE UP MUSLIM WORL LEADERS, U R GVIVING AWAY YOUR RESOURCES AND SELLING YOUR PEOPLE TO POVERTY. ITS TIME MUSLIM WORLD SAW THE WRITING ON THE WALL. WHO HAS THE COURAGE TO STAND TO AMERICAN BULLY BUSINESS?
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