How did Bush Win?


President Bush's victory came as a big surprise to many. Most exit polls conducted on election day had predicted a landslide for John Kerry. The Bush camp was nervous and in fact, the concession speech was almost written. However, there were some optimists in the campaign who had full confidence in their ability to win the election. Ralph Reed, Karl Rove and Jerry Falwell, the three most powerful men of the Christian right were so confident of their candidate's victory that they dismissed exit poll data as non-sense. What was their optimism based on and why were they so sure? Answers to these questions reveal the secrets of the Bush campaign and the superb strategy to win an election, President Bush was certain to lose.

Elections are not won in debates or in the media. Elections are won in the polling booth. Those who arouse their supporters to be in voting lines indeed win the election. The Christian right mobilized its resources at the grassroots level and brought more than 76 percent of its supporters to the polling booth. Thus, the election was indeed won much earlier than the counting of the first ballot. 

The Christian right put same sex marriage initiative in 11 states including Ohio that drew even those who were politically and fiscally opposed to Bush. The poor peasants, the factory workers and the average Joes were told in their churches that the wrath of God was on its way if they do not support a candidate who is opposed to gay marriages. Millions were mobilized to come out in defense of same sex marriage. They saved the institution of marriage and voted the man in who according to their church hierarchy was most suited to defend the divine will in America. 

The deciding factor, however, was the ability of the Christian right to mobilize its supporters at precinct levels. A precinct is a small nucleus of up to 700 voters. There are over 100,000 precincts in the country. It is at this level that the Christian right was most effective. In most precincts it had its poll workers who checked the voting speed by hour. They informed other volunteers about the voting pattern who in turn called those who had not voted to get out and vote. Democrats could not match their organization. In their strongholds, they could not motivate enough blacks and Hispanics and other minorities to come out and vote in large numbers. If in Ohio or Florida, Democrats were slightly better organized, they might have succeeded in bringing out enough voters to turn the election in their favor. 

The victory is thus a victory of superb organization and carefully crafted local agenda. Ohio was badly hit by job losses. But the Christian right, through its emphasis on the religious definition of marriage, succeeded in motivating a large turn out. Those who would have voted against Bush supported him on this issue and gave him election. For instance, in Ohio, out of 25 counties, Bush carried 21 counties with a margin of 20 to 30 percent. While Kerry got only four counties by not more than 10 percent margin. If in four of his counties his margin were over 30 percent, he might have carried Ohio with him. In Florida too, out of 24 counties, Kerry won only two counties handsomely. The margin of Bush victory in his counties was so huge that it made the necessary difference.

Similarly, women outpaced men in this election. 54 percent women compared with 46 men voted in this election. Bush won 48 percent of women vote while Kerry carried 51 percent. Kerry had hoped on the support of young voters. However, their turn out was not different from the last election. 

There is indeed a very important lesson for Muslims in this election. Unlike the previous one, no one can now either take the credit or blame for this outcome. With the exception of Wisconsin, Muslim vote didn't make much difference. 

In Nevada, it came close to making some difference, yet due to poor electoral work in the state, the Muslim vote could not be mobilized fully. Muslim effectiveness will be felt only when they know the actual number of their votes and their whereabouts. Before the next congressional election, if they can mobilize and count their votes at precinct levels, they will be in a better position to play an active role in the electoral process. Otherwise, they will remain at the margin, as they were in the last election.

Dr. Aslam Abdullah is Director of the Muslim Electorates' Council of America. He is also the director of the Islamic Society of Nevada.


  Category: Americas, World Affairs
  Topics: Elections, George W. Bush, Government And Politics
Views: 3111

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Older Comments:
ABDULLAH AHMED FROM USA said:
Pollster John Zogby appropriately dubbed this an "Armageddon Election" given the "closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side." But the word "Armageddon" suggests another explanation as well: I suspect religious overtones and undercurrents played a major role in the election.

Several Christian radio shows included frequent, unabashed proselytizing for Bush votes. Ministers, and their guests, regularly said that a vote for George Bush was the vote that God wanted cast. One minister advised listeners that "God's watchman" would be observing us all "in the polling booths," and reporting what we did directly to God.

Fear and bogeyman syndrome created by the first term of Bush may also have been a factor.

2004-11-17