Ceasefire Without Justice: How the Gaza Deal Masks Continued Occupation

The exchange deal involves releasing 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in return for 48 Israeli captives, including 1,700 Gazans whom the UN classifies as forcibly disappeared. Among the released, 250 are serving long or life sentences, with 135 to be deported to Gaza or abroad, 100 to the occupied West Bank, and 15 to East Jerusalem.

Uncertain Future of the Ceasefire

Political analyst Mouin Rabbani warns that it is unclear whether this marks the beginning or the end of the conflict. He cautions that Israel may resume its military offensive once captives are retrieved or use negotiation breakdowns over governance and disarmament to justify continued occupation of Gaza. The situation, he argues, will depend heavily on the actions of Donald Trump's administration and its political will to maintain the ceasefire.

US Role and Trump's Resolve

Rabbani highlights that real power lies with Washington, not with Israel, Palestine, or Arab states. He recalls that Trump's previous interest in an Israeli-Palestinian deal was mostly symbolic, focused on optics rather than substance. The sustainability of the current ceasefire, therefore, hinges on whether Washington maintains attention beyond short-term diplomatic gains.

Netanyahu's Position and Western Governments

While global public opinion has largely turned against Israel and Netanyahu, Rabbani notes that Western governments remain complicit, failing to take meaningful actions such as arms embargoes, ending intelligence cooperation, or banning settlement goods. He calls attention to the hypocrisy of allowing a leader "wanted by international justice" to travel freely through ICC member states.

Reconstruction and Accountability

Rabbani criticizes Western plans to have Arab states finance Gaza's reconstruction, while Israel bears no responsibility for the destruction it caused. He insists that reconstruction should be linked to a credible political roadmap toward ending occupation and establishing a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders.

Palestinian Statehood and Competing Dynamics

He stresses that the Trump-Netanyahu proposal does not recognize Palestinian statehood or self-determination, but merely "takes note" of Palestinian aspirations. The deal mirrors the Oslo framework but with even lower political expectations, likely trapping Palestinians in endless, unproductive negotiations.

At the same time, a global movement for accountability-through legal action, sanctions, and public mobilization-is emerging as a counterforce. Rabbani concludes that public pressure must persist, as true justice and political change will only come when governments act on the will of their citizens rather than enabling Israel's ongoing impunity.