From Ukraine to Gaza: The Cost of America's Global Miscalculations

On the Tucker Carlson Show, renowned scholar John Mearsheimer offers a blunt realist critique of U.S. foreign policy-arguing that America provoked the Ukraine war, is enabling genocide in Gaza, and has surrendered strategy to ideology and the Israel lobby, with grave global consequences.

1. The Ukraine War

• Ukraine is losing: Russia is winning militarily; Ukraine's defense is collapsing, and it cannot survive without Western aid.

• No diplomatic solution is possible due to Russia's three non-negotiable demands:

  1. Ukrainian neutrality (no NATO membership),

  2. Demilitarization,

  3. Recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine.

• The U.S. and EU refuse to compromise, and Ukraine is unwilling to surrender land.

• Frozen conflict ahead: Eventually, Russia will win militarily, and a de facto status quo will be established.

2. U.S. Strategic Miscalculations

• NATO expansion eastward-especially to Ukraine-was provocative and directly led to war.

• U.S. leaders wrongly believed Russia wouldn't push back.

• Russophobia among U.S. elites led to irrational and self-defeating policies.

• NATO is no longer about peacekeeping-it's now about containing Russia and promoting U.S. dominance.

3. The Rise of China

• U.S. policies helped China become a peer competitor, particularly through economic engagement in the 1990s-2010s.

• Mearsheimer warned this would happen, but U.S. policymakers ignored the risks.

• Now, China is the real strategic threat, but U.S. entanglements in Ukraine and the Middle East prevent a proper "pivot to Asia."

4. The U.S.-Israel Relationship

• The U.S. supports Israel unconditionally, even when it harms U.S. interests.

• This is driven by the Israel lobby, not strategic or moral considerations.

• The lobby is not just Jewish-it includes Christian Zionists and institutions like AIPAC and the ADL.

• No other country has ever enjoyed this kind of unconditional support in U.S. history.

5. The Palestinian Genocide

• Mearsheimer argues Israel is conducting a genocide in Gaza, as defined by the 1948 Genocide Convention:

  • Deliberate targeting of a national group,

  • Attempting to destroy its identity and presence.

• Israel's strategy post-October 7, 2023, is ethnic cleansing, aiming to remove all Palestinians from Gaza and possibly the West Bank.

• This is part of the long-term Zionist vision of Greater Israel, which includes territory beyond Israel's 1948 borders.

6. Implications for U.S. Policy and Global Perception

• U.S. complicity in Israel's actions damages its reputation, fuels anti-American resentment, and provokes potential blowback.

• 9/11 was, in part, motivated by U.S. support for Israel, according to Osama bin Laden and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.

• American foreign policy is increasingly seen as corrupted, irrational, and driven by special interests, not national interest.

7. Campus Protests and Changing U.S. Opinion

• Student protests against Israel's war in Gaza are labeled as antisemitism-even when led by Jewish students.

• Public opinion, especially among youth, is shifting rapidly against Israel.

• The Israel lobby has lost control of public discourse, even as it still dominates policymaking.

8. Long-Term Forecast

• The U.S. remains powerful but has misused its power.

• China is the main long-term rival; U.S. power may ultimately stabilize due to demographic advantages and immigration.

• The Israel-Palestine issue is morally and strategically corrosive for the U.S., Israel, and global stability.

Final Reflection

• Mearsheimer believes the only way out is for the U.S. to use its leverage to force Israel into a two-state solution or stop supporting Israeli aggression.

• He warns of growing extremism in Israel, increasing censorship in the West, and the real risk of further destabilization if current trends continue.