In a revealing conversation, former British diplomat and Middle East expert Alastair Crooke unpacks the complexities behind the sudden 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025. Far from being a spontaneous escalation, Crooke explains how the war was the result of months of premeditated deception, false intelligence, and geopolitical maneuvering involving Israel, the United States, and their allies.

The conflict exposed the fragility of Israel’s security, the limitations of Western military assumptions, and the resilience of Iran’s state and military apparatus. As the dust settles on an abrupt ceasefire brokered by former U.S. President Donald Trump, questions loom about whether this is merely a pause in hostilities or a prelude to an even larger confrontation shaped by the shifting dynamics of global power between the West, Russia, China, and the Global South.

Background to the Iran-Israel Conflict

• The decision for war was made months earlier by Israel, around September or October 2024.
• Israel prepared sabotage teams and drone operations within Iran’s borders.
• The U.S., under Trump, pretended negotiations were ongoing to deceive Iran.
• On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, with full U.S. knowledge and possible coordination.

Use of Artificial Intelligence in Provoking War

• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) used an AI system called Mosaic (developed by Palantir) to infer Iran's intentions based on metadata, not concrete evidence.
• This AI-generated "evidence" falsely showed an acceleration of Iran’s nuclear program, triggering the IAEA resolution against Iran on June 12, 2025.
• The AI was supplying data to Israeli intelligence (Mossad), compromising the objectivity of international monitoring.

Goals of Israel and the U.S.

• Israel aimed to paralyze Iran’s military and government through:
  • Assassination of senior military commanders.
  • Targeted killing of nuclear scientists.
  • Cyberattacks disabling Iran’s air defenses, especially near the Iraq-Syria border.
• The hope was to cause state collapse, similar to Syria in 2011.

Iran’s Rapid Response

• Iran restored its air defense within 8 hours.
• It replaced killed commanders and quickly transitioned to counter-offensive operations.
• Iran retaliated using drones, ballistic missiles, and precision strikes—some launched from Iraq and Azerbaijan.

Miscalculations by Israel and Trump

• The anticipated collapse of Iran didn’t occur.
• Trump ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites—Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan—which were long-planned.
• Iran received prior warnings, likely via Russia or Switzerland, and mitigated damage by reinforcing entrances with soil.
• Satellite imagery and expert analyses suggest minimal damage was done despite U.S. claims of "total success."

Fallout for the IAEA and Western Credibility

• The IAEA lost credibility due to its role in facilitating the pretext for war.
• Iran expelled the IAEA and likely removed enriched uranium and centrifuges before the strikes.
• Russia and China expressed strong condemnation of the attacks, calling them illegal and immoral.

The 12-Day War: Damage and Consequences

On Israel:

• Iran’s missile attacks escalated from simple drones to hypersonic missiles.
• Israel’s air defense systems, including Iron Dome and David’s Sling, were overwhelmed.
• Major Israeli infrastructure was damaged:
  • Haifa Port and its refinery were disabled.
  • Ashdod Port sustained heavy damage.
  • Eilat Port was already non-operational.
• Israeli military and economy were pushed towards collapse, with massive internal displacement.

On Iran:

• Iran suffered initial losses but quickly recovered militarily.
• The Iranian public rallied behind the government, similar to the unity during the Iran-Iraq War.
• Iran demonstrated resilience and capacity to fight a high-tech asymmetric war.

Trump’s Ceasefire Announcement

• Under pressure from Israel, Trump announced a ceasefire abruptly.
• It lacked a formal framework—no agreements, no enforcement mechanisms.
• The ceasefire was more a pause in hostilities than a permanent peace deal.

The Bigger Picture: U.S. Hegemony and Financial Imperatives

• The war was not solely about Iran’s nuclear program but part of a larger U.S. strategy to:
  • Sustain dollar primacy and control global energy flows.
  • Isolate Russia and China by removing Iran as a strategic pivot in the North-South and East-West trade corridors.
• The decapitation-style attacks mirror recent attempted sabotage inside Russia’s air bases—indicating a broader Western strategy.

Reaction from Russia, China, and the Global South

• Russia and China solidified their alignment with Iran, condemning Western aggression.
• The Global South increasingly views the U.S. and its allies as aggressors undermining international law.

Internal U.S. Political Fallout

• Trump alienated parts of his MAGA base, who opposed new wars and saw the conflict as serving Israeli interests, not U.S. interests.
• Prominent voices like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon criticized Trump for betraying his "no more wars" promise.
• This created a significant fracture within Trump’s political coalition.

Future of Iran’s Strategy

• Iran is reconsidering its reluctance to deepen military ties with Russia and China, viewed now as a strategic mistake.
• Iran’s leadership signals no intention to surrender its nuclear enrichment program despite U.S. pressure.
• There is a shift away from pursuing reconciliation with the West toward deeper alignment with BRICS+, Russia, and China.

Conclusion: The War Isn't Over

• The current ceasefire is fragile and temporary.
• The ultimate goal of regime change in Iran persists within U.S.-Israeli policy circles.
• Iran has shattered the myth of Israeli military invulnerability, but both sides remain prepared for future escalations.
• The conflict is part of a broader geopolitical struggle involving financial dominance, regional control, and resistance to Western hegemony.

Alastair Warren Crooke CMG, born 1949, is a former British diplomat, and is the founder and director of the Beirut-based Conflicts Forum, an organization that advocates for engagement between political Islam and the West. Previously he was a ranking figure in both British intelligence (MI6) and European Union diplomacy.