President Donald Trump’s dramatic early exit from the G7 summit in Alberta has set off alarm bells from Ottawa to Tehran.

With Israel’s missiles lighting up Tehran’s skies and the Middle East on the brink, Trump’s return to Washington — and his cryptic reason of having “big stuff” to deal with — has thrust the world into a perilous guessing game.

The White House insists his return is linked to the unfolding conflict. Trump’s own posts on Truth Social, however, deny any connection to a ceasefire effort. The president, as usual, is playing his cards close to his chest — or perhaps not even holding a consistent hand.

Trump’s Tightrope: Bombs or Backroom Deals?

In the hours since the Israeli airstrike on Tehran, Trump has alternated between applauding the Israeli assault and distancing himself from it. This ambiguity is nothing new. But in this moment — with Netanyahu claiming “full coordination” with Washington — Trump’s waffling carries life-or-death consequences.

The heart of Trump’s dilemma? He wants to stop Iran from getting a nuclear bomb. Like Netanyahu, he sees a nuclear-armed Iran as unacceptable. Unlike Netanyahu, Trump still claims he wants a deal — if it makes him look like the Nobel-worthy genius negotiator he imagines himself to be.

But so far, his strategy is anything but coherent. One day he says Israel’s attack will “help a deal.” The next, he warns it could “blow it.” His own envoy was set for sixth-round nuclear talks in Oman — until those were abruptly cancelled.

This unpredictability, his supporters argue, is intentional — part of the so-called “madman theory” Trump loves to invoke. The idea: if enemies fear your irrationality, they’ll back down. But in practice, it risks spiraling into chaos with no off-ramp in sight.

Under Netanyahu’s Shadow

Israel, emboldened by American-made bunker busters, wants to finish what it started. Netanyahu has reportedly been lobbying for deeper US involvement — not just moral support, but military firepower to destroy Iran’s fortified sites.

Trump is under immense pressure from hawks in Congress who have long called for regime change in Iran. If he leans into escalation, he risks dragging America into yet another Middle East war. But if he holds back, he risks looking weak — or worse, disloyal to Israel, a political third rail in Republican politics.

For a president obsessed with optics and legacy, that’s a dangerous place to be.

Holding the Line — or Losing Control?

There is a quieter camp in Trump’s inner circle urging caution. National Security Council officials are reportedly warning that escalation could backfire — especially after Iranian missiles breached Israeli and American missile shields over Tel Aviv and Petah Tikva, killing civilians and rattling nerves.

Even Trump, sources say, balked at Netanyahu’s suggestion of assassinating Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei — a move that would almost certainly ignite a region-wide inferno.

Trump might still opt for a middle path: offer symbolic support to Israel while keeping US forces on defense — not offense. But how long can he walk that tightrope as the conflict deepens?

Maga vs. Middle East: Trump’s Base Revolts

Perhaps the most surprising challenge is coming from Trump’s own base.

Key voices within the MAGA movement — once reflexively pro-Israel — are now pushing back. They say an “America First” president has no business risking American lives for Netanyahu’s war.

Firebrand commentator Tucker Carlson unleashed a blistering editorial accusing Trump of capitulating to Israeli interests. “Drop Israel,” he demanded, arguing that this conflict betrays Trump’s anti-interventionist promises.

MAGA stalwarts like Marjorie Taylor Greene echoed the sentiment, warning that full involvement in the Iran-Israel war would alienate the very voters who propelled Trump to power.

Their pressure seems to be working. Over the weekend, Trump posted that he joined Russia’s Vladimir Putin in calling for a ceasefire — a dramatic pivot from his earlier threats. On Sunday, he clarified: “The US had nothing to do with the attack on Iran.”

Deal, Detonation, or Disengagement?

So what’s next?

Trump has three doors ahead:

1. Escalate: Bow to Netanyahu and the hawks, deepen US military involvement, and risk full-scale war.
2. Stall: Keep playing both sides, backing Israel publicly while urging restraint behind closed doors.
3. Disengage: Listen to MAGA, distance the US from the war, and try to restart diplomacy.

Each option carries enormous consequences — for global stability, for Iran’s future, for Israel’s security, and for Trump’s reelection gamble.

In true Trumpian fashion, he might try to walk through all three doors at once. But with missiles flying and diplomacy dead in the water, time — and lives — are running out.